Reds Recall Chase Petty for Monday’s Start Against Cubs in Wrigley: Can He Plug the Leaking Dike?

The Cincinnati Reds are in crisis mode. After a disastrous weekend in Pittsburgh that saw them get swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates—culminating in a heartbreaking loss that wasted a gem from top prospect Chase Burns—the Reds have officially hit the panic button. On Monday, the club announced the recall of right-handed starter Chase Petty from Triple-A Louisville. The 23-year-old will take the ball in the series opener against the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field, replacing the injured Brandon Williamson, who landed on the injured list late last week with shoulder fatigue.

This is not just a routine roster move. This is a desperate attempt to stop a slide that has exposed every weakness on a team that was supposed to be a contender in the National League Central. The Reds’ -22 run differential is now tied with the 14-21 Colorado Rockies and worse than the 13-21 Boston Red Sox, who sit dead last in the American League East. The band-aid of winning one-run games is no longer holding. Let’s break down what Petty brings, what’s at stake, and whether he can turn the tide against a Cubs team that is suddenly two games clear in the division.

Why Chase Petty? The Reds’ Rotation is Bleeding

The Reds’ starting rotation was supposed to be a strength in 2025, but injuries and inconsistency have turned it into a liability. Brandon Williamson’s shoulder fatigue is just the latest blow. Enter Chase Petty, a former top prospect acquired in the blockbuster trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Minnesota Twins. Petty has been a high-upside arm with a power sinker and a devastating slider, but his journey to the majors has been anything but smooth.

In his second year logging big-league innings, Petty has posted a 4.38 ERA at Triple-A Louisville at age 23. That number is deceptive. It includes a couple of truly ugly outings where he was hammered, but also stretches of brilliance where he looked like the dominant force the Reds envisioned. In spring training this year, Petty was electric, including a standout performance in the Spring Breakout game that had scouts buzzing. The hope in Cincinnati is that the 2025 version of Petty is that confident, polished pitcher—not the overwhelmed 22-year-old who was shelled for 13 earned runs in just 6.0 innings across three appearances with the Reds last season.

The move also required a corresponding roster transaction. The Reds optioned Zach Maxwell, the well-traveled reliever who has shuttled between Cincinnati and Louisville all season, to make room for Petty. Maxwell’s demotion is a sign that the Reds are prioritizing length and stability in the rotation over bullpen depth—a gamble that could backfire if Petty gets knocked around early.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Cincinnati’s Run Differential is a Red Flag

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Reds’ -22 run differential. In the National League Central, that is the worst mark in the division by a wide margin. The Milwaukee Brewers are at +8, the Cubs are at +5, and even the last-place Pirates are at -12. The Reds’ run differential is identical to the 14-21 Colorado Rockies, a team that is essentially tanking. It is worse than the 13-21 Boston Red Sox, a franchise that has already fired its hitting coach.

How is this possible? The answer lies in the luck factor of one-run games. The Reds have been brilliant—or fortunate—in close contests, winning a disproportionate number of them. But as any seasoned analyst will tell you, that trend is unsustainable. The offense has been inconsistent, the starting rotation has been a revolving door, and the bullpen has been overworked. Sunday’s loss in Pittsburgh was the perfect microcosm: Chase Burns threw a gem, the offense went silent, and the bullpen cracked. That is not a recipe for a playoff push.

Here is the harsh reality for Cincinnati: run differential is a better predictor of future success than win-loss record. The Reds are playing like a 14-21 team disguised as a .500 club. Petty’s start against the Cubs is not just about one game; it is about whether this rotation can provide any semblance of stability.

Scouting Chase Petty: What to Expect at Wrigley Field

Chase Petty is not a typical prospect. He was drafted in the first round by the Twins in 2021 out of high school, and his elite fastball velocity has always been his calling card. His sinker sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and can touch 99 mph, generating ground balls at a high rate. His slider is a swing-and-miss weapon when it’s on, and he has a developing changeup that he uses against left-handed hitters.

However, Petty’s command has been inconsistent. In Triple-A this year, he has walked 4.2 batters per nine innings, a number that will get him in trouble against a disciplined Cubs lineup. The friendly confines of Wrigley Field can be a nightmare for a pitcher who struggles with control, especially with the wind blowing out in early May.

Here is what the Reds are hoping to see from Petty on Monday night:

• First-pitch strikes: Petty cannot afford to fall behind early. The Cubs’ hitters, led by Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson, will punish hittable counts.
• Ground ball efficiency: With Wrigley’s short porch in right field, Petty needs to keep the ball down. His sinker is his best friend in this park.
• Pitch count management: The Reds’ bullpen is gassed. Petty needs to go at least five innings to give the relievers a breather.

If Petty can replicate his spring training form—where he showed poise and advanced pitchability—he could be the spark the Reds desperately need. But if he reverts to the 2024 version that got lit up, Cincinnati’s slide could accelerate.

Prediction: Can Petty Save the Reds’ Season?

Let’s be honest: one start from Chase Petty will not fix the Reds’ systemic issues. The offense has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games. The bullpen has a 4.67 ERA over the past two weeks. And the run differential suggests that regression is coming hard. But a win against the Cubs—especially in Wrigley, where the atmosphere is always electric—could provide a psychological boost.

My prediction: Petty gives the Reds a quality start—six innings, three earned runs, five strikeouts, and two walks. He will show flashes of brilliance but also moments of wildness. The Cubs will scratch across a couple of early runs, but Petty will settle down and keep Cincinnati in the game. The Reds’ offense will finally wake up, scoring four runs in the seventh inning to secure a 5-3 victory. It will be a much-needed win, but not a cure-all.

The bigger question is whether this is a one-off call-up or a sign that the Reds are ready to let Petty sink or swim in the majors. If he pitches well, he could force his way into the rotation permanently. If he struggles, the Reds will have to look elsewhere—perhaps even the trade market—to fix a rotation that is cracking under pressure.

Conclusion: The Band-Aid is Off

The Cincinnati Reds are at a crossroads. Their -22 run differential is a flashing red warning light that cannot be ignored. The brilliance in one-run games has masked deep flaws in the offense, rotation, and bullpen. Chase Petty’s recall is a roll of the dice—a chance for a young arm to prove he belongs.

For Petty, this is redemption. For the Reds, this is survival. Monday’s start against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field will not define the season, but it will tell us a lot about whether this team has the resilience to compete in the National League Central. If Petty can deliver, the Reds might just buy themselves enough time to figure out the rest. If he falters, the cracks will become a canyon.

One thing is certain: the band-aid is off, and the bleeding is real. It is time for Chase Petty to step up.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.