NFL Free Agency Grades: Why Experts Are Wildly Split on Giants’ Isaiah Likely Signing

The first wave of the NFL’s legal tampering period has crested, leaving a frothy mix of blockbuster deals, head-scratching contracts, and immediate reactions in its wake. As analysts scramble to assign letter grades to every move, one agreement has sparked a fascinating divergence of opinion: the New York Giants’ signing of tight end Isaiah Likely. What some see as a savvy, high-upside steal for a needy offense, others view as a puzzling overpay for an unproven commodity. This split reveals more than just differing tastes; it highlights the complex gamble at the heart of free agency—betting on potential versus proven production.

A Tale of Two Tight Ends: Likely’s Path from Baltimore to New York

To understand the debate, one must first look at Likely’s unique career arc in Baltimore. Drafted in the fourth round in 2022, he was cast as the clear backup to All-Pro Mark Andrews. For most of his tenure, that’s exactly what he was. But when Andrews missed significant time with injury, Likely erupted. In a seven-game stretch as the primary starter in 2023, he became a revelation, showcasing reliable hands, surprising yards-after-catch ability, and a nose for the end zone. His career averages—11.6 yards per reception and 15 touchdowns on just 99 career catches—speak to a player with explosive efficiency.

The Ravens, financially committed to Andrews, allowed Likely to test the market. Giants head coach Brian Daboll, whose offense craves dynamic mismatches, saw an opportunity. The connection? New Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka has a history of utilizing versatile tight ends, and the allure of unlocking a 25-year-old with untapped starter potential was too strong to ignore. The Giants aren’t just buying Likely’s past stats; they’re investing in the tantalizing “what if” he showed in flashes.

The Report Card: A Wild Spectrum of Expert Grades

With the ink still drying on the agreement, NFL pundits have delivered their initial verdicts. The range is striking, illustrating the core controversy of the signing.

• The Optimists (Grade: B+ to A-): This camp praises General Manager Joe Schoen for identifying a young, ascending talent at a premium position. They argue that in a tight end market that often sees declining veterans get paid, securing a player of Likely’s age and athletic profile is a win. The reunion with head coach Brian Daboll (who coached against him in the AFC) is seen as a strategic fit, not a coincidence. Proponents believe Likely’s production as a starter is a more accurate indicator of his future than his overall career backup numbers.
• The Skeptics (Grade: C- to C+): The critics focus on sample size and cost. Their central question: Are the Giants paying starter money for a career backup? They point out that Likely’s brilliance came in a small, insulated window within one of the league’s most unique and quarterback-friendly systems. The leap to being “the guy” in a Giants offense that has struggled with consistency is a monumental one. This group wonders if this is a case of paying for potential that may never be fully realized outside its original ecosystem.
• The Middle Ground (Grade: B- to B): Some analysts see both sides, resulting in a solid but non-elite grade. They acknowledge the risk but commend the aggressive pursuit of a weapon for quarterback Daniel Jones. The grade often comes with a caveat: “This move’s final grade hinges entirely on how the Giants use him.” If he’s merely a luxury piece, it’s a miss. If he’s a central, schemed-up focal point, it could be a home run.

Scheme Fit and the Daniel Jones Factor

Beyond the dollar figure, the success of this signing hinges on scheme. The Giants’ offense under Mike Kafka has sought a dynamic, move tight end to pair with the more traditional blocking presence of Daniel Bellinger. Likely profiles perfectly for that “F” tight end role—aligning in the slot, out wide, or in motion to create favorable matchups against linebackers and safeties.

For quarterback Daniel Jones, Likely represents a crucial security blanket. Jones has historically thrived when targeting the middle of the field and in play-action, areas where a seam-stretching tight end can dominate. Likely’s ability to make contested catches and generate yards after the catch could elevate a passing game that desperately needs playmakers beyond receiver Malik Nabers. This isn’t just an addition; it’s a targeted acquisition meant to solve a specific schematic and production problem.

Predictions: Boom or Bust for Big Blue?

So, will the Giants’ gamble on Isaiah Likely pay off? The predictions are as divided as the initial grades.

The Boom Scenario: Likely seamlessly transitions into a 65-80 catch role, becoming Jones’s most trusted red-zone target and a consistent chain-mover. He replicates his Baltimore starter production over a full season, hitting 700+ yards and 8+ touchdowns. His presence opens the field for Nabers and the running game, making the Giants’ offense surprisingly potent and justifying the investment. In this outcome, the contract looks like a bargain for a top-10 tight end.

The Bust Scenario: The limited sample size proves to be a mirage. Without the defensive attention commanded by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ run game, Likely struggles to separate consistently. He remains a complementary piece rather than a centerpiece, putting up modest stats similar to his Baltimore backup years (30-40 catches, 400 yards). The Giants are left with another mid-tier tight end on a contract that could have been used to address more glaring needs on the offensive line or defense.

The most likely outcome (pun intended) lies in the middle. Expect moments of brilliance that make headlines, mixed with stretches of quiet inconsistency as he adapts to a new system and increased defensive focus. A stat line around 55 receptions, 600 yards, and 5-6 touchdowns would be a solid return, offering enough flashes to suggest a higher ceiling in Year 2 within the system.

Final Whistle: A Grade That Can’t Be Written Yet

The wild split in NFL free agency grades for the Isaiah Likely signing is a testament to the fascinating nature of this move. There is no consensus because Likely is the ultimate Rorschach test of a free agent. Optimists see a budding star finally unleashed. Pessimists see a system product cashing in. The truth, as always, will be written on the field at MetLife Stadium.

Ultimately, the Giants didn’t pay for a finished product. They paid for the compelling trajectory of a player’s career graph and bet heavily on their coaching staff’s ability to connect the dots. In a free agency period often defined by safe, expensive bets on past performance, the Giants’ move for Likely is a bold swing on future potential. Whether it’s a strikeout or a grand slam won’t be decided by the pundits’ Day 1 grades, but by the development of Daniel Jones, the creativity of Mike Kafka, and the undeniable talent of Isaiah Likely himself. For a franchise in need of offensive firepower, that swing, regardless of the split opinion, was a necessary one to take.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.