What Could the Colts Realistically Get in an Anthony Richardson Trade?

The NFL offseason is a vortex of rumors, but some reports carry more seismic weight than others. The latest shockwave: the Indianapolis Colts are reportedly open to trading quarterback Anthony Richardson, the dynamic but oft-injured former fourth overall pick. After just four starts in two seasons, the idea of moving on is staggering, yet the whispers persist. If General Manager Chris Ballard picks up the phone, what could he realistically expect in return? The recent, cautionary history of trading high-draft-pick quarterbacks provides a sobering, and perhaps disappointing, blueprint for Colts fans.

A Market of Diminished Returns: The Recent QB Trade Precedents

To forecast a potential Richardson trade, we must look at the recent past. As highlighted by analysts like Nat Newell of the Indy Star, the market for former first-round quarterbacks who haven’t panned out with their original team is brutally efficient—and rarely kind to the seller. The last three years have established a clear pattern of depreciating asset value.

Let’s examine the most relevant comparables:

• Trey Lance (49ers to Cowboys, 2023): The third overall pick in 2021, Lance started just four games in San Francisco. The 49ers traded him to Dallas for a fourth-round pick. This is the high-water mark for a QB with minimal, unimpressive tape.
• Justin Fields (Bears to Steelers, 2024): Fields, the 11th pick in 2021, showed significant flashes and started 38 games. Despite more production and experience, Chicago received only a conditional sixth-round pick that could become a fourth based on playing time. The market was shockingly cold.
• Zach Wilson (Jets to Broncos, 2024): The second overall pick in 2021 was arguably the biggest bust of the trio. New York had to include a seventh-round pick just to get back a sixth-round selection from Denver. This trade represents the absolute floor.

This trend underscores a harsh NFL truth: potential alone has an expiration date. Once a player is labeled a “reclamation project,” his trade value plummets, regardless of draft pedigree.

Anthony Richardson: A Unique but Flawed Asset

Where does Anthony Richardson fit into this depressing matrix? His profile is uniquely polarizing, creating a wider range of potential outcomes than for Lance, Fields, or Wilson.

The Case for a Higher Return: Richardson’s ceiling is arguably the highest of any young quarterback traded in recent memory. His athleticism is generational. In his limited 2023 action, he displayed breathtaking rushing ability and a cannon for an arm. He is also still on his affordable rookie contract with three years remaining, a major plus for any acquiring team. A franchise with a bold vision and a patient head coach could see him as the ultimate lottery ticket—one with a clearer path to hitting than most.

The Anchor on His Value: The concerns are massive and impossible to ignore. Durability is the paramount issue. Richardson suffered a season-ending AC joint sprain in Week 5, after missing a game earlier with a concussion. In college and the pros, his physical style has led to injuries. Availability is the best ability, and he has yet to prove it. Furthermore, his raw passing mechanics and accuracy were known draft knocks, and his 84 attempts last season were too few to dispel those concerns. Teams aren’t trading for what he’s done; they’re gambling on what he *might* become if he can stay on the field.

Predicting the Colts’ Potential Haul

Given the precedents and Richardson’s distinct profile, we can bracket the likely trade scenarios. The Colts will not be receiving a first- or second-round pick. The realistic negotiation starts in the late rounds and hinges on conditional clauses.

Scenario 1: The Realistic Baseline (Most Likely)
The Colts receive a conditional fifth or sixth-round pick. This aligns closely with the Justin Fields framework, accounting for Richardson’s higher draft slot but greater injury risk. The conditions would likely be tied to playing time (snaps or starts) and could escalate the pick to a fourth-rounder if he becomes a full-time starter. This is the “market value” deal, acknowledging his talent but pricing in the significant bust potential.

Scenario 2: The Optimistic Swing
A team falls in love with the athletic upside. In this case, Indianapolis might secure an unconditional fourth-round pick, mirroring the Trey Lance return. This would require a bidding war between two or more quarterback-needy teams convinced they can “fix” him. A candidate could be a team with an established veteran where Richardson can sit for a year (e.g., New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks) or a team with an offensive-minded coach renowned for development.

Scenario 3: The Salary Dump
If Richardson’s medicals scare teams off or the Colts simply want to move on, they might have to accept a late-round pick swap, similar to the Zach Wilson deal. This is the worst-case scenario and would signal that the league views his injuries as chronic and his development as too far behind.

The Wild Card: A trade could involve a player-for-player exchange, perhaps for a disgruntled veteran at a position of need (edge rusher, cornerback) who also needs a change of scenery. This is harder to predict but could yield more immediate value for the Colts’ roster.

The Staggering Conclusion: To Trade or Not to Trade?

The ultimate question may not be “what can they get?” but “should they do it at all?” Trading a top-five pick after just four starts is a monumental admission of a failed evaluation, a blow to any front office’s credibility. The potential return—a Day 3 draft pick—feels like a pittance for such a capital investment.

From a football perspective, the prudent path might be patience. Richardson’s contract is team-friendly for two more seasons. The Colts could feasibly keep him as a high-upside backup behind a newly acquired veteran, hoping his value rebounds with a healthy stretch of play, either for themselves or for a future trade. Selling at his absolute lowest value is rarely good business.

However, if the new coaching staff has zero faith in his development or long-term health, cutting their losses now, however painful, clears a definitive path forward at the sport’s most important position. It would be a stark, unemotional decision rooted in asset management.

The final verdict? If a trade materializes, history screams that the return will be disappointing. Look for a conditional late-round pick, with the Colts hoping for a fourth but likely settling for a fifth or sixth. The saga of Anthony Richardson, whether in Indianapolis or elsewhere, remains one of the NFL’s most compelling “what if” stories—a testament to unparalleled talent tragically hampered by the inability to stay on the field. For the Colts, trading him would close a brief, chaotic chapter, but the return would be a stark reminder of how quickly draft capital evaporates in the relentless grind of the NFL.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.