NFL Draft bust candidates: Ty Simpson, Rueben Bain among riskiest picks in 2026

The NFL Draft is not an exact science, to say the least. Even the wisest front office minds know selecting players is closer to an educated guess than anything else. Every April, general managers and scouting departments pore over thousands of hours of tape, conduct exhaustive interviews, and run countless drills, all in the pursuit of finding the next franchise cornerstone. But for every Patrick Mahomes or Micah Parsons, there is a Ryan Leaf or a JaMarcus Russell—a player whose professional career never comes close to matching the hype of draft night.

The 2026 NFL Draft, set to take place in Pittsburgh, is no different. While the class is still taking shape, early evaluations have already identified a handful of prospects who carry significant risk. These are players with undeniable talent but also glaring red flags—whether it’s inconsistent production, injury history, or a skill set that may not translate to the next level.

As we look ahead, it’s important to remember that first-round picks have a much higher rate of success than fourth-round picks, and second-round picks have a much higher rate of success than sixth-round picks. A first-rounder flopping could cost a general manager his job, but a seventh-rounder never panning out is nothing out of the ordinary. That doesn’t mean all highly-drafted players fulfill expectations. The 2026 NFL Draft will inevitably have its share of busts, and a few players have already showed warning signs before hearing their name called in Pittsburgh.

Here are seven NFL Draft prospects who could be bust candidates in 2026.

Ty Simpson: The Alabama Quarterback Conundrum

Ty Simpson arrived at Alabama as a five-star recruit, the kind of pedigree that typically leads to early-round draft capital. He has the arm strength, mobility, and the “it” factor that scouts drool over. But here’s the problem: Simpson has yet to prove he can consistently win against elite competition. In limited action as a backup to Jalen Milroe, Simpson has shown flashes of brilliance—a deep ball that sails with precision, and the ability to escape the pocket—but he has also displayed troubling inconsistency.

His decision-making under duress is a major concern. Simpson tends to lock onto his first read and force throws into tight windows, a habit that leads to interceptions at the college level and will be ruthlessly exploited by NFL defenses. Furthermore, his mechanics break down when he’s hurried, leading to errant passes and a lack of accuracy on intermediate routes.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Limited starting experience: He hasn’t been the full-time starter for an entire season, making his evaluation a projection rather than a proven track record.
• System reliance: Alabama’s offense has often masked quarterback flaws with elite talent around them. Simpson may struggle when asked to carry a weaker roster.
• Injury history: A nagging shoulder issue has limited his practice time, raising questions about durability at the next level.

Prediction: If a team reaches for Simpson in the first round based on his high school reputation, they could be looking at a multi-year project who never becomes a reliable starter. He is a prime candidate for the “bust” label if he doesn’t land in a perfect situation with a patient coaching staff.

Rueben Bain: The Edge Rusher with a Ceiling?

Rueben Bain burst onto the scene at Miami as a freshman, racking up sacks and earning All-ACC honors. His explosive first step and relentless motor made him a fan favorite. But as the 2025 season progresses, scouts are starting to see cracks in the armor. Bain is undersized for a traditional NFL defensive end, measuring in around 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds. While he can win with speed, he struggles mightily when offensive linemen get their hands on him.

His lack of a counter move is alarming. Once his initial rush is stopped, Bain is often neutralized, failing to disengage or bend the edge effectively. In the NFL, where offensive tackles are bigger, stronger, and more technically sound, a one-trick pony gets eaten alive.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Size limitations: He lacks the length and mass to hold up against the run, making him a liability on early downs.
• Pass-rush arsenal: His reliance on speed alone is a recipe for failure. He needs to develop a spin move, a swim move, or a power rush to succeed.
• Injury concerns: Bain has dealt with a lingering ankle issue that has sapped some of his explosiveness this season.

Prediction: Bain could be a situational pass rusher in a 3-4 scheme, but if a team drafts him in the top 20 expecting a three-down star, they will be disappointed. He is a high-risk, high-reward pick that could easily flame out if he doesn’t add functional strength and a second move.

Malachi Moore: The Cornerback with Character Questions

Malachi Moore has the physical tools to be a lockdown corner: long arms, fluid hips, and impressive ball skills. He has started for Alabama for multiple seasons and has the tape to justify a Day 2 selection. However, off-field concerns are starting to overshadow his on-field production. Multiple reports have surfaced about Moore’s attitude in the locker room, including clashes with coaches and a perceived lack of accountability.

More troubling is his tendency to take plays off when the ball isn’t thrown his way. Scouts have noted that Moore’s effort in run support is inconsistent, often shying away from contact. In a league where cornerbacks must tackle in space, this is a glaring red flag.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Character concerns: Team interviews will be critical. If Moore comes across as entitled or unwilling to be coached, he could slide.
• Effort issues: A lack of hustle on tape is a deal-breaker for many defensive coordinators.
• Scheme limitations: He thrives in press-man coverage but struggles in zone, limiting his versatility.

Prediction: Moore has the talent to be a Pro Bowler, but his maturity issues could derail his career. He is a classic boom-or-bust prospect who will test the patience of whichever franchise takes a chance on him.

Dylan Edwards: The Running Back Who Might Not Translate

Dylan Edwards is electric with the ball in his hands. The Colorado running back has shown home-run speed and the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, making him a dynamic weapon in the open field. But at 5-foot-8 and 175 pounds, Edwards is a tiny back by NFL standards. His frame simply cannot withstand the punishment of a 17-game season as a primary ball carrier.

Furthermore, Edwards struggles in pass protection. He is a liability when asked to block blitzing linebackers, which will keep him off the field on third downs—the very downs where his receiving skills would be most valuable. In the NFL, running backs who can’t block don’t stay on the field.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Size and durability: He is an injury waiting to happen if used as a workhorse.
• Pass protection: He will be a target for defensive coordinators who will blitz his gap.
• Limited role: He projects as a gadget player or change-of-pace back, which limits his draft value.

Prediction: Edwards could carve out a niche as a return specialist and third-down back, but if a team drafts him in the third round expecting a feature back, they will be sorely disappointed. He is a luxury pick that rarely pays off.

Kyle McCord: The Quarterback with a Low Ceiling

Kyle McCord has the stats—big numbers at Ohio State and Syracuse—but his tape tells a different story. McCord is a statue in the pocket, lacking the mobility to extend plays or escape pressure. In today’s NFL, where quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen redefine the position, McCord’s immobility is a massive liability.

His arm strength is average at best, and his deep ball often hangs, allowing defensive backs to close on the receiver. While McCord processes the game well and makes smart decisions, his physical limitations cap his ceiling. He is a game manager in a league that increasingly demands game-changers.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Lack of mobility: He will be a sitting duck behind a porous offensive line.
• Arm strength: He cannot make the tight-window throws required in the NFL.
• System quarterback: His success has come in offenses that scheme receivers open, not from creating plays on his own.

Prediction: McCord is a Day 3 pick who might become a competent backup, but if a team drafts him in the middle rounds expecting a future starter, they are chasing a mirage. He is a low-risk, low-reward player who will likely never be more than a spot starter.

James Pearce Jr.: The Edge Rusher with Motor Questions

James Pearce Jr. is a physical freak. At Tennessee, he has displayed explosive speed off the edge and a knack for creating turnovers. But there is a growing concern about his consistency. Too often, Pearce disappears for long stretches, taking plays off or failing to finish tackles. His effort level is inconsistent, and that is a death knell for defensive linemen in the NFL.

Additionally, Pearce has a slender frame that may not hold up against the run. He is often washed out of plays by double teams and struggles to set the edge. His production is undeniable, but his tape reveals a player who relies on athleticism rather than technique.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Effort concerns: Scouts question his love for the game and his willingness to do the dirty work.
• Run defense: He is a liability against the run, limiting his snap count.
• Technique: He needs significant coaching to refine his pass-rush moves and hand usage.

Prediction: Pearce has the raw talent to be a top-10 pick, but his motor issues make him a gamble. If he lands with a strong locker room and a demanding coach, he could thrive. If not, he could be out of the league in four years.

Kamari Lassiter: The Cornerback Who Peaked Early

Kamari Lassiter was a standout at Georgia, known for his physical press coverage and tenacity. However, his 2025 season has been a step backward. Lassiter has struggled with faster receivers, getting beaten deep on multiple occasions. His lack of top-end speed is becoming a glaring issue, and his technique has regressed, leading to more penalties.

In the NFL, where speed is king, Lassiter may be too slow to play outside cornerback. A move to safety could be in his future, but that requires a learning curve that not every player can handle.

Why he’s a bust risk:

• Speed limitations: He will be exposed by NFL burners.
• Regression: His best football may be behind him, a dangerous sign for a prospect.
• Positional uncertainty: He may not have a clear role at the next level.

Prediction: Lassiter could become a solid nickel corner or safety, but if a team drafts him in the second round expecting a starting outside corner, they will be disappointed. He is a player whose value is tied to scheme fit.

Conclusion: Proceed with Caution

The 2026 NFL Draft is still months away, but the warning signs are already flashing for several high-profile prospects. Ty Simpson and Rueben Bain headline a list of players who carry significant risk, but they are far from alone. From character concerns to physical limitations, these prospects have the talent to succeed but also the red flags that could lead to disappointment.

For general managers, the key is to avoid falling in love with potential. The draft is an educated guess, but the best teams minimize risk by focusing on proven production, work ethic, and scheme fit. The players listed above are not guaranteed busts—they could easily prove the doubters wrong and become stars. But the odds are stacked against them, and history tells us that for every success story, there are a dozen cautionary tales.

As the draft approaches, keep an eye on these names. They could be the steals of the class, or they could be the next cautionary tales in the long history of NFL Draft busts. Only time will tell, but the evidence suggests that caution is the wisest course of action.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.