Conn Smythe Watch: Who’s Leading for Stanley Cup MVP After a Chaotic First Round?

The first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs was nothing short of a demolition derby. Favorites fell. Underdogs roared. Overtime became a nightly ritual. And the sheer unpredictability has blown the Conn Smythe Trophy race wide open. Unlike years past where a single superstar carried his team through a predictable bracket, this year’s chaos has created a crowded field of contenders.

As we enter the chaos of Round 2, the award for playoff MVP is truly up for grabs. It is no longer just about the best player on the best team. It is about the player who can elevate his game when the checking tightens and the pressure mounts. Let’s break down the leading candidates, the dark horses, and the players who have already been eliminated but left a lasting impression.

The Front-Runners: Players Defining the Second Round

These are the men who have not only posted gaudy numbers but have also delivered in the clutch. Their teams are alive, and their performances have been the primary reason for their survival.

Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)

MacKinnon is playing with a ferocity that borders on supernatural. After a relatively quiet Game 1 against Winnipeg, he exploded, finishing the series with 10 points (4 goals, 6 assists) in five games. His speed through the neutral zone is a weapon no defense can fully contain. The key for MacKinnon is consistency. If he can maintain this level against a disciplined Dallas Stars team, he will be the clear front-runner. His ability to draw penalties and create scoring chances out of nothing makes him the current betting favorite.

Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

It feels almost criminal to say McDavid is “under the radar,” but his first-round performance against Los Angeles was a masterclass in patience. While he didn’t lead the league in points (8 points in 5 games), his hockey IQ and playmaking were on full display. He is controlling the tempo of games without forcing the issue. The real test comes against the Vancouver Canucks, a team that will try to physically contain him. If McDavid can navigate that pressure and elevate his shooting percentage, he will stake his claim.

Jake Guentzel (Carolina Hurricanes)

The ultimate playoff performer. Acquired at the trade deadline specifically for this moment, Guentzel has been a perfect fit in Carolina’s system. He led the team with 6 points (4 goals, 2 assists) in their sweep of the New York Islanders. His net-front presence and ability to deflect pucks are unmatched. More importantly, he takes pressure off Sebastian Aho. If the Hurricanes make a deep run, Guentzel’s reputation as a “clutch” player will be the narrative that drives his Conn Smythe candidacy.

The Dark Horses: Players Poised to Leap Forward

The beauty of a chaotic first round is that it creates opportunity for players who weren’t on the preseason radar. These are the names you need to watch in Round 2.

• Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins): The Bruins’ goaltender has been the single most valuable player in the playoffs so far. He posted a .957 save percentage and a 1.60 goals-against average in a brutal seven-game series against Toronto. If Boston beats Florida, Swayman will have to be the reason. A goalie winning the Conn Smythe is rare, but his performance has been historically elite.
• Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers): After a quiet regular season by his standards, Zibanejad has exploded. He is the engine of the Rangers’ power play and has been a force at even strength. His 10 points (4 goals, 6 assists) in four games against Washington is a warning shot. If he continues this pace against Carolina, he will be in the conversation.
• Evan Bouchard (Edmonton Oilers): The defenseman is quietly becoming the most dangerous offensive blue-liner in the playoffs. He leads all defensemen in scoring and is quarterbacking the Oilers’ lethal power play. If McDavid or Draisaitl falter, Bouchard’s production from the back end could steal the narrative.
• Roope Hintz (Dallas Stars): Hintz is a playoff monster. His combination of size and speed is a nightmare for defenders. He was the Stars’ best player in Round 1 against Vegas, and his clutch goal-scoring ability will be vital against Colorado. He is the type of player who can win a series by himself.

Eliminated Contenders: The “What If” Candidates

No Conn Smythe watch is complete without acknowledging the players whose incredible efforts were cut short. Their performances deserve recognition, even if their teams are on the golf course.

Mathew Barzal (New York Islanders) was the best player in the first round before his team was swept. He recorded 8 points in four games, including a hat trick. His speed and vision were mesmerizing, but the Islanders’ lack of depth doomed him. Similarly, Mark Stone (Vegas Golden Knights) tried to will his team past Dallas, but a nagging injury limited his effectiveness. And let’s not forget David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins), who had a quiet series by his standards but still delivered a massive Game 7 goal. His elimination, however, opens the door for Swayman to take the spotlight.

Expert Analysis: The Defining Factors for Round 2

Predicting the Conn Smythe winner is a fool’s errand, but we can identify the key trends that will shape the race.

1. Goaltending will be the great equalizer. In the first round, we saw elite goaltending from Swayman, Igor Shesterkin (Rangers), and even Stuart Skinner (Oilers) in key moments. The second round features matchups where a hot goalie can single-handedly steal games. If Swayman or Shesterkin posts a .940 save percentage in a series win, they immediately become the MVP front-runner.

2. The power play is the ultimate weapon. The teams still alive (Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, New York) all have top-5 power plays in the playoffs. The player who can consistently score on the man advantage will accumulate points quickly. MacKinnon, McDavid, and Zibanejad are all power-play specialists. This is where the race will be won.

3. Physical toll and injury risk. The second round is notoriously the most physical. Players like MacKinnon and McDavid will be targeted. A single injury can derail a Conn Smythe campaign. The player who stays healthy and maintains his performance level through the grind will have the edge.

4. The “Narrative” factor. The Conn Smythe is as much about story as it is about stats. A player who overcomes adversity—like Swayman after the Bruins’ Game 7 collapse last year—or a player who carries a team on his back (like Guentzel in Carolina) will get extra votes.

Prediction: Who Wins the Conn Smythe?

While it is far too early to crown a winner, the data and trends point to one name: Nathan MacKinnon. He has the highest point-per-game average among remaining players, he is playing on a team with a clear path to the Final, and his physical style is built for the playoffs. However, the gap is razor-thin. Connor McDavid is the only player who can match MacKinnon’s ceiling, and Jeremy Swayman is the wild card who could rewrite the narrative entirely.

But do not sleep on Mika Zibanejad. The Rangers are deep, and if he continues his current pace, he could be the player who emerges from the Eastern Conference with the trophy.

Conclusion: The Race is Wide Open

The first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs was a beautiful mess. It eliminated the safe bets and introduced a new generation of contenders. The Conn Smythe race is now a battle of wills, skill, and resilience. As Round 2 begins, the spotlight is on the game-breakers: MacKinnon, McDavid, Guentzel, and Swayman.

One thing is certain: the player who hoists the Conn Smythe Trophy in June will have earned it the hard way. There will be no easy paths, no cakewalks. Only the best, most clutch performer will survive. And that is what makes this year’s race the most compelling in recent memory. Stay tuned—the chaos is just getting started.

Source: Based on news from ESPN.

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