2026 NFL Draft Odds: How Many Players From Each Power 4 Go in Round 1?

The NFL Draft is the ultimate guessing game. Every year, front offices, agents, and fans engage in a high-stakes poker match where information is the only currency that matters. Unlike a typical sporting event where you can watch a team’s form or a player’s stats, the draft is a chaotic blend of medical evaluations, pro day workouts, private interviews, and back-channel whispers. Bookmakers know this better than anyone. Because the draft is so information-dependent, it’s notoriously difficult for sportsbooks to win the day. That creates a unique opportunity for sharp analysts and die-hard fans who have been paying attention to the college football season, the transfer portal, and the combine rumors.

If you have an inside scoop—or even a strong gut feeling—on which conferences are producing the most NFL-ready talent, you might be in a good position to wager. As of April 22, DraftKings Sportsbook has released prop bets on how many players from each of the Power 4 conferences will be selected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. This is a fascinating market because it captures the shifting power dynamics of college football. Are the SEC and Big Ten still the dominant forces? Or are the ACC and Big 12 closing the gap?

Let’s break down the odds, analyze the talent pipelines, and give you the expert analysis you need to make an informed bet. (Note: This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.)

Big Ten: The League of Quarterbacks and Linemen

The Big Ten has undergone a seismic shift in recent years, adding powerhouses like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington. This expansion has turned the conference into a national juggernaut, and the 2026 draft class reflects that. The total Big Ten players selected in the first round is set at Under 11.5: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total) and Over 11.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total).

At first glance, the Over 11.5 at +125 looks juicy. But let’s dig deeper. The Big Ten is absolutely loaded with quarterback talent. Names like Drew Allar (Penn State), Dillon Gabriel (Oregon), and Will Howard (Ohio State) are all potential first-rounders. Add in elite offensive linemen like Josh Conerly Jr. (Oregon) and Donovan Jackson (Ohio State), plus defensive stars like Mason Graham (Michigan) and JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State), and the numbers start to pile up.

However, the -165 price on the Under suggests the books are leaning heavily toward a lower total. Why? Because the draft is volatile. A single injury, a poor combine, or a surprising run on players from another conference can derail the Big Ten’s numbers. Also, remember that the SEC is still the king of the draft, and it often cannibalizes early picks. The Big Ten could have 10 or 11 players go in the first round, but hitting 12 is a stretch given the depth of the SEC and the potential for surprise picks from the ACC or Big 12.

Expert Prediction: I’m leaning Under 11.5. The juice is heavy, but it’s the safer play. The Big Ten will have a strong showing, but 12 first-rounders is a high bar. Look for 10 or 11 players to come from this conference.

SEC: The Perennial Powerhouse Under Pressure

The SEC has dominated the NFL Draft for decades. In 2025, the conference produced 12 first-round picks, and the expectation is that they will be in the same ballpark in 2026. However, the books haven’t released specific SEC totals yet for this market, but based on historical data and the current talent pool, we can project. The SEC’s advantage lies in its defensive line and secondary depth. Players like James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) and Malaki Starks (Georgia) are consensus top-15 picks. The conference also has quarterback Carson Beck (Georgia) and wide receiver Luther Burden III (Missouri) who could sneak into the first round.

But here’s the twist: the SEC is facing a talent drain. The transfer portal has allowed players to leave for other conferences, and the NIL landscape has leveled the playing field. Schools like Texas A&M and LSU are still elite, but they’re no longer the only game in town. The SEC’s total could be surprisingly low if a few key players decide to return to school or if the NFL scouts fall in love with players from the Big Ten or ACC.

Expert Analysis: The SEC will still lead the Power 4 in first-round selections, but the margin will shrink. Expect 10-12 players from the SEC, with the total likely settling around 11. If you can find a prop bet for Under 11.5 in the SEC, it might be worth a look.

ACC and Big 12: The Dark Horses and the Quarterback Factor

The ACC and Big 12 are often viewed as second-tier conferences in terms of NFL draft production, but the 2026 class could change that narrative. The ACC is home to quarterback Cam Ward (Miami) and wide receiver Keon Coleman (Florida State), both of whom are projected as first-round locks. The conference also has defensive end Jared Verse (Florida State) and cornerback Fentrell Cypress II (Florida State), giving the Seminoles a potential three first-rounders. That alone could push the ACC’s total to 4-5 players.

The Big 12 is a bit more unpredictable. The conference lost Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, but it gained Colorado, which brings Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter into the fold. Sanders is a polarizing quarterback who could go in the top 10, and Hunter is a generational two-way talent. Beyond them, the Big 12 has offensive linemen like Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) and defensive backs like Kamari Lassiter (Texas Tech). The total for the Big 12 is likely set at 3.5 or 4.5, and the Over is tempting given the star power at the top.

Expert Analysis: The ACC will surprise people. With Miami and Florida State producing elite talent, look for 5-6 ACC players in the first round. The Big 12 will be top-heavy, with 3-4 players, but the depth isn’t there. If you see a prop for Over 4.5 ACC players, take it. For the Big 12, the Under might be safer unless Sanders and Hunter both go in the top 10.

How to Bet the 2026 NFL Draft: Strategy and Insider Tips

Betting on draft props is different from betting on a game. Here are three key strategies to keep in mind:

• Follow the Combine and Pro Days: The NFL Scouting Combine and individual pro days are where stock rises and falls. A player who runs a 4.3 40-yard dash can jump from a third-round grade to a first-round lock. Keep an eye on official measurements and medicals.
• Watch the Quarterbacks: Quarterbacks always get overdrafted. If a team like the Giants or Raiders needs a QB, they might reach for a player from a smaller conference, skewing the totals. The 2026 class has 5-6 potential first-round QBs, which could inflate the Big Ten and ACC numbers.
• Ignore the Hype on “Stacked” Classes: Every year, analysts say a conference has a “historic” class. But the draft is a crapshoot. The SEC often underperforms relative to the hype because teams reach for need. Stick to the numbers and the consensus big boards from trusted sources like Mel Kiper Jr. or Daniel Jeremiah.

One more thing: information is king. If you have a source inside a program, or if you’ve been watching tape on a player like Travis Hunter (Colorado) who could be a top-5 pick, you have an edge. The books set these lines based on public perception, not on secret workouts. That’s why the Over 11.5 Big Ten at +125 is a value play if you believe the hype. But if you’re risk-averse, the Under 11.5 at -165 is the safer path.

Conclusion: The Final Verdict on Power 4 Draft Odds

The 2026 NFL Draft is still over a year away, but the betting markets are already forming. The Big Ten is the most intriguing conference to wager on, with a tight line at 11.5. I expect the conference to produce 11 first-round picks, so the Under is the play. The SEC will be its usual dominant self, but don’t be surprised if the total dips to 10 or 11 as the transfer portal and NIL redistribute talent. The ACC is the sleeper conference—backed by Miami and Florida State, they could hit 5-6 picks. The Big 12 is a boom-or-bust scenario, with Colorado’s stars making it a potential Over play.

Remember, the draft is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay informed, watch the combine, and don’t be afraid to trust your instincts. If you’ve been following college football closely, you already have an edge over the average bettor. Good luck, and may your picks be as sharp as a first-round offensive tackle.

Source: Based on news from Fox Sports.