2026 NHL Draft Lottery Tracker: Full Results, First-Round Order and No. 1 Pick Winner
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery concluded Tuesday night at NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, N.J., and the Toronto Maple Leafs were the biggest winners of the evening. While all 16 non-playoff teams entered with hope, it was Toronto that beat the odds to secure the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the San Jose Sharks, who moved up to claim the No. 2 selection.
This year’s lottery delivered a seismic shift in the league’s competitive landscape. The Maple Leafs, a franchise that has notoriously struggled in the postseason despite having Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, now hold the golden ticket to add a generational talent. Gavin McKenna remains the undisputed headline name of the 2026 NHL Draft class. The Penn State standout is viewed as a franchise-changing talent, and if he is the selection, McKenna will be paired with the Leafs’ last No. 1 pick, Auston Matthews.
The results also deliver a stunning twist for the Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers, who entered the night with the best odds but all moved down. Below, we break down the full results, the confirmed first-round order, and what this means for the future of the league.
2026 NHL Draft Lottery Tracker: Full Results, First-Round Order and No. 1 Pick Winner originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
How the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery Unfolded
The NHL Draft Lottery uses a weighted system where the teams with the worst regular-season records have the highest probability of winning the No. 1 pick. However, as we saw Tuesday night, the lottery balls rarely follow the script. The Toronto Maple Leafs had only a 5.8% chance of landing the top selection, yet they defied the odds to leap from the 12th slot in the lottery order to the very top.
The San Jose Sharks, who finished with the league’s second-worst record, also moved up, jumping from the No. 3 slot to No. 2. This marks a massive win for a Sharks organization that has been rebuilding for several seasons and now has a chance to land either Gavin McKenna or the second-best prospect in the class, James Hagens of Boston College.
Here is the full breakdown of how the lottery positions shifted:
- Toronto Maple Leafs (12th in lottery odds) — Won No. 1 overall pick
- San Jose Sharks (3rd in lottery odds) — Moved up to No. 2
- Anaheim Ducks (4th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 3
- Montreal Canadiens (5th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 4
- Columbus Blue Jackets (6th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 5
- Arizona Coyotes (7th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 6
- Philadelphia Flyers (8th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 7
- St. Louis Blues (9th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 8
- Detroit Red Wings (10th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 9
- Calgary Flames (11th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 10
- Buffalo Sabres (13th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 11
- New Jersey Devils (14th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 12
- Chicago Blackhawks (1st in lottery odds) — Dropped to No. 13
- New York Rangers (2nd in lottery odds) — Dropped to No. 14
- Vancouver Canucks (15th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 15
- Ottawa Senators (16th in lottery odds) — Stayed at No. 16
The biggest losers of the night were undoubtedly the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers. Chicago, which had the best odds at 18.5%, fell to No. 13. The Rangers, who had the second-best odds at 15.2%, dropped to No. 14. Both teams will now have to recalibrate their draft boards for a much later selection.
Gavin McKenna: The Generational Prize for the Maple Leafs
If there is one name that will dominate headlines between now and the 2026 NHL Draft, it is Gavin McKenna. The 18-year-old center from Penn State has drawn comparisons to Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby for his explosive skating, elite vision, and ability to take over games. McKenna posted 78 points in 34 games this season for the Nittany Lions, cementing his status as the consensus No. 1 prospect.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, landing McKenna is a dream scenario. The franchise has been criticized for its inability to win in the playoffs, but pairing McKenna with Auston Matthews creates a one-two punch that could dominate the Eastern Conference for a decade. Matthews, drafted No. 1 overall by the Leafs in 2016, has already won the Hart Trophy and multiple Rocket Richard awards. Adding McKenna would give Toronto an unprecedented level of high-end talent.
Expert Analysis: “This is a franchise-altering moment for the Leafs,” said former NHL scout and TSN analyst Craig Button. “McKenna is not just a star; he’s a player who can change the trajectory of an entire organization. Toronto now has the chance to build around two generational centers, which is something only a handful of teams in history have ever had.”
However, there are whispers that the Maple Leafs might consider trading the pick. With the team’s salary cap constraints and need for defensive depth, general manager Brad Treliving could field offers from teams desperate for McKenna. But given the rarity of a No. 1 pick in a draft with a talent like McKenna, it is far more likely that Toronto will make the selection and usher in a new era.
Full First-Round Order for the 2026 NHL Draft
With the lottery results now official, the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft is set. The draft is scheduled to take place in June 2026 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec. Here is the complete order for the first 16 picks, plus the remaining selections based on playoff elimination order:
- 1. Toronto Maple Leafs — Expected to select F Gavin McKenna (Penn State)
- 2. San Jose Sharks — Likely to select F James Hagens (Boston College) or D Matthew Schaefer
- 3. Anaheim Ducks — Targeting D Matthew Schaefer or F Michael Misa
- 4. Montreal Canadiens — Will select best available forward
- 5. Columbus Blue Jackets — Need a top-pairing defenseman
- 6. Arizona Coyotes — Could target F Porter Martone
- 7. Philadelphia Flyers — Looking for a center
- 8. St. Louis Blues — Best player available
- 9. Detroit Red Wings — Need goaltending or a winger
- 10. Calgary Flames — Rebuilding through the draft
- 11. Buffalo Sabres — Could trade this pick for immediate help
- 12. New Jersey Devils — Depth draft
- 13. Chicago Blackhawks — Huge fall; will still get a top prospect
- 14. New York Rangers — Need a defenseman
- 15. Vancouver Canucks — Staying put
- 16. Ottawa Senators — Late first-round value
Predictions: The Sharks will have a tough decision at No. 2. While James Hagens is a dynamic playmaker, defenseman Matthew Schaefer could be the better long-term fit for a San Jose blue line that lacks elite talent. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks at No. 3 will likely snap up whichever of those two drops. The real intrigue starts at No. 4, where the Montreal Canadiens could take a swing on a high-upside winger like Michael Misa or a two-way center like Cole Hutson.
What the Lottery Results Mean for the NHL’s Competitive Balance
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery has thrown a wrench into the rebuilding plans of several teams. The Chicago Blackhawks, who are in the midst of a long rebuild, were counting on a top-three pick to accelerate their timeline. Instead, they fell to No. 13, a massive blow for a team that has finished near the bottom of the standings for three consecutive seasons.
Similarly, the New York Rangers were hoping to land a franchise center to replace the aging Mika Zibanejad. Instead, they will pick at No. 14, where the talent drop-off is significant. For the Vancouver Canucks, who had the worst odds but still fell, the result is less damaging—they were never expected to win the lottery anyway.
On the flip side, the Toronto Maple Leafs now have a golden opportunity to reset their window. With McKenna potentially joining a core of Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, the Leafs could become the class of the Atlantic Division for years to come. The San Jose Sharks also have reason to celebrate, as moving up to No. 2 gives them a chance to draft a cornerstone player for their rebuild.
Expert Analysis: “This lottery is a reminder that the system is designed to create parity, but it also punishes teams that are bad for too long,” said NESN analyst Barry Melrose. “Chicago and New York will have to be patient, but Toronto just got a gift that could change their franchise’s identity.”
Conclusion: A Night of Shock and Opportunity
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will be remembered as one of the most dramatic in league history. The Toronto Maple Leafs defied astronomical odds to land the No. 1 pick and the chance to draft Gavin McKenna, a player who could redefine the franchise. The San Jose Sharks also made a significant leap, while the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers were left to pick up the pieces after a brutal drop.
As we look ahead to the draft in June, the focus will be on whether Toronto keeps the pick or trades it for immediate help. But one thing is certain: the 2026 NHL Draft class is loaded with talent, and the teams that landed in the top five have a chance to accelerate their rebuilds dramatically.
Stay tuned to NESN for complete coverage of the 2026 NHL Draft, including prospect rankings, mock drafts, and live analysis from the floor in Montreal. The future of the NHL is being written right now, and it starts with the Maple Leafs holding the golden ticket.
2026 NHL Draft Lottery Tracker: Full Results, First-Round Order and No. 1 Pick Winner originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.
