Jake Paul’s Next Move: Cruiserweight Return or a Heavyweight Gamble Against Francis Ngannou?

In the chaotic, high-stakes world of celebrity boxing, few figures generate more heat—and more headlines—than Jake Paul. The 29-year-old former Disney star turned pugilist has made a career out of defying expectations, but after suffering his first legitimate knockout loss to Anthony Joshua in December, the “Problem Child” is facing a career-defining crossroads. Now, with his WBA cruiserweight ranking stripped and his jaw surgically repaired, Paul is plotting his return. According to his business partner Nakisa Bidarian, the target is a return to the cruiserweight division before the end of the year—but the door remains wide open for a seismic heavyweight showdown against former UFC champion Francis Ngannou.

The Aftermath of the Joshua Loss: A Reset, Not a Retirement

Let’s be brutally honest: Jake Paul’s December fight against Anthony Joshua was a mismatch on paper that played out exactly as the skeptics predicted. Paul, who had built a 12-2 record against a mix of MMA veterans and journeymen, stepped up to face a two-time unified heavyweight champion who hits like a freight train. The result? A sixth-round knockout that left Paul with a broken jaw and a harsh reality check.

But here is where the story gets interesting. Instead of retreating to the safety of influencer exhibitions, Paul has done what he does best: adapted. His promoter and partner at Most Valuable Promotions (MVP), Nakisa Bidarian, recently told BBC Sport that the loss hasn’t derailed Paul’s ambitions. “I think his focus is on cruiserweight, outside of a potential boxing match against Francis Ngannou,” Bidarian revealed. This is a strategic pivot. The cruiserweight division (200 lbs) is where Paul’s size, speed, and power are most optimized. It’s the weight class where he once held a WBA ranking before the Joshua fight erased it.

Key takeaway: Paul is not running from the loss. He is recalibrating. A return to cruiserweight allows him to rebuild his ranking, regain confidence, and prove that his boxing skills are legitimate—not just a product of carefully selected opponents.

Francis Ngannou: The Heavyweight Wildcard That Changes Everything

While the cruiserweight return is the logical path, the elephant—or rather, the Cameroonian giant—in the room is Francis Ngannou. The former UFC heavyweight champion, who famously gave Tyson Fury a hellacious scare in their 2023 crossover fight, is a free agent with a chip on his shoulder. Bidarian didn’t mince words: a fight against Ngannou is “possible,” and it’s the one heavyweight scenario that makes financial and competitive sense for Paul.

Why? Because Ngannou, despite his fearsome reputation, has shown vulnerability inside the squared circle. His split-decision loss to Fury—where he knocked down the Gypsy King—proved he can hang with elite boxers, but his subsequent knockout loss to Anthony Joshua exposed a lack of head movement and defensive fundamentals. Paul’s team knows this. They also know that Ngannou’s name carries massive pay-per-view value, especially after the Fury fight drew global attention.

Expert analysis: A Paul vs. Ngannou fight is a high-risk, high-reward gamble for both men. For Paul, it’s a chance to silence critics who say he only fights MMA fighters. For Ngannou, it’s a chance to bounce back from the Joshua loss and secure a massive payday. But make no mistake—this is a cruiserweight vs. a natural heavyweight. Paul would have to bulk up significantly, and that could compromise his speed. However, if he can box smartly, use lateral movement, and avoid Ngannou’s thunderous left hook, he has a genuine path to victory.

• Paul’s advantage: Youth (29 vs. 38), speed, and technical boxing experience.
• Ngannou’s advantage: Raw power, reach, and proven ability to hurt anyone.
• The X-factor: Paul’s broken jaw. Can he withstand a punch from a man who nearly decapitated a heavy bag?

The Cruiserweight Route: A Smarter, Safer Path to Redemption

If Paul chooses the prudent route, he will return to cruiserweight—the division where he looked most comfortable before the Joshua fight. At 200 pounds, Paul is a big, strong athlete with a solid jab and underrated body punching. His wins over Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz, and Tyron Woodley all came at or near this weight. The problem? The cruiserweight division is currently stacked with legitimate world-class talent. Names like Jai Opetaia, Gilberto Ramirez, and Lawrence Okolie are miles ahead of Paul in skill and experience.

But Paul doesn’t need to fight them immediately. The MVP model has always been about strategic matchmaking. Expect Paul to target a top-15 gatekeeper or a faded former champion to ease back into the rankings. A fight against a name like Richard Riakporhe or even a rematch with Tommy Fury (who handed Paul his first loss) would generate buzz without being a suicide mission.

SEO-optimized prediction: I believe Paul will fight twice in 2025. The first bout will be a cruiserweight tune-up against a durable but beatable opponent—think a Chris Eubank Jr. type at a catchweight. If he wins convincingly, he will then push for the Ngannou fight in late 2025 or early 2026. The timeline fits: Paul’s jaw will be fully healed, and Ngannou will be desperate for a win after two straight losses in boxing.

The Business of Paul: Why MVP Is Playing the Long Game

Let’s not forget the business engine behind Jake Paul. Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) is a well-oiled machine that has turned controversy into cash. Bidarian, a former UFC executive, knows the value of keeping Paul relevant. The Ngannou rumor isn’t an accident—it’s a calculated leak to keep fans debating and media outlets writing. Every headline about “Paul vs. Ngannou” drives up the value of Paul’s next fight, whether it’s against the Cameroonian or a cruiserweight contender.

Furthermore, Paul’s partnership with DAZN and his own promotional platform gives him leverage that most boxers his age don’t have. He can dictate terms, choose his venue, and control the narrative. The loss to Joshua? In the MVP playbook, that’s just a chapter in a longer story. The story now is about resilience, adaptation, and the audacity to challenge a man like Ngannou.

Final Verdict: What Should Jake Paul Do?

As a journalist who has covered this sport for years, I’ll give you my honest take: Jake Paul should fight Francis Ngannou. Not because it’s the safest choice—it’s not. But because it is the most compelling, the most lucrative, and the most likely to cement his legacy beyond the “YouTuber boxer” label. The cruiserweight division will still be there in 2026. But the window to fight a name like Ngannou—a man who nearly beat Tyson Fury—is closing. Ngannou is 38, and his stock has dropped after the Joshua loss. If Paul waits too long, the fight loses its magic.

However, if Paul is truly serious about becoming a world champion, he must prove he can dominate at cruiserweight first. A win over a top-10 cruiserweight would do more for his credibility than a controversial decision over Ngannou. The choice is binary: legacy or risk. Knowing Jake Paul, he will likely choose the risk—and that’s exactly why we keep watching.

Bottom line: Whether it’s cruiserweight redemption or a heavyweight war with Ngannou, Jake Paul’s return in 2025 will be the most-watched fight of the year outside of the elite heavyweight title bouts. The “Problem Child” is back, and he’s not done making noise.

Source: Based on news from BBC Sport.