Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s PGA Championship Picks: My Best Bets and Predictions for Valhalla

Like every golf junkie out there, I’m pretty excited about the PGA Championship. This is the second major of the year, and it always brings a unique blend of pressure, prestige, and pure chaos. We’re heading to Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, a course that has a history of producing dramatic finishes and Hall-of-Fame champions.

But let’s be real: this year feels different. Between the latest with LIV Golf and some golfers still trying to get back to their true form after injuries, this week’s tournament should be interesting and fun to watch. We’ve got a fractured golf landscape, players shaking off rust, and a course that demands both power and precision. It’s the perfect recipe for a betting bonanza.

As always, my “Bear Bets” are real wagers that I am actually making. This isn’t a hypothetical wish list. I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I’ve scoured the odds, analyzed the form, and factored in the “X-factors” that Vegas simply cannot quantify. Here’s where I’m putting my money this week at the PGA Championship.

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Why Valhalla Sets Up Perfectly for a Major Upset (and a Bear Bet)

Before we dive into specific names, we have to talk about the venue. Valhalla is a beast. It’s a long, demanding layout that has been stretched to over 7,600 yards. That immediately eliminates the short hitters. But it’s not just about brute force. The bentgrass greens are pure, and the rough is thick, penal, and gnarly. You cannot fake your way around this course.

What makes Valhalla special for betting is its history of producing winners who were either at their absolute peak or came out of nowhere. Think back to 2014 when Rory McIlroy outdueled Phil Mickelson in a Sunday classic, or 2000 when Tiger Woods took down Bob May in a playoff. This course rewards ball-striking and composure above all else.

Here’s what I’m looking for in my PGA Championship picks:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: You need to hit fairways, but more importantly, you need length. Par 5s are reachable for the big boys.
• Strokes Gained: Approach: The greens are large but have subtle tiers. You need to hit your spots from 150-200 yards.
• Scrambling: Even the best will miss greens. The rough is brutal. A good short game is a must.
• Recent Form: I want guys who are trending, not just a big name who has been coasting.

With that framework, let’s get to the best bets.

Bear Bets: My Outright Winner Picks for the PGA Championship

I’m not a fan of betting the chalk in a major. The top of the board is always crowded with value traps. Scottie Scheffler is the obvious favorite, and for good reason. He’s the best player on the planet. But at +400 or +450, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me. I need more upside. Here are the three players I’m betting to win the Wanamaker Trophy.

1. Xander Schauffele (+1600)

I know, I know. Xander has a reputation for being the best player without a major. But that narrative is getting old, and the odds are simply too good to ignore. Schauffele is a ball-striking machine. He ranks top-5 on tour in Strokes Gained: Total and Strokes Gained: Approach. He has six top-10 finishes in his last seven events, including a win at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Why this week? Valhalla is a bomber’s paradise, and Xander drives it beautifully. He also has the mental fortitude to close. He’s been knocking on the door for years. The stars are aligning. At 16/1, I’m taking a big chunk of Xander to finally break through.

2. Bryson DeChambeau (+2200)

I’m going to get some heat for this, but hear me out. Bryson is back. The LIV Golf narrative aside, DeChambeau is playing some of the best golf of his career. He won the U.S. Open at Winged Foot, which is a similar test of power and precision. He recently finished T6 at the Masters and won on LIV.

Valhalla is long. It was built for a guy like Bryson. He can hit wedges into holes where others are hitting 5-irons. The concern is always his short game and putting, but his putting has been surprisingly solid lately. If he gets hot with the flat stick, he’s going to run away from the field. This is a high-risk, high-reward prediction, but the payout is massive.

3. Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)

This is my “dark horse” special. Hideki has been quietly dealing with a back injury, but he looked fantastic at the Masters (T6) and has a history of playing well on bentgrass. He is a precision iron player who can also bomb it when needed. He won the 2021 Masters, so we know he has the guts to win a major.

The key for Hideki is health. If his neck and back are 100%, he is a top-10 player in the world. At 40/1, I’m getting a former major champion who is just a few weeks removed from being in contention at Augusta. That’s value you can’t find anywhere else in the field.

Top Finishers and Player Props: The Bear’s Value Plays

If you don’t want to bet the outright winner, or you want to hedge your bets, the top-5, top-10, and top-20 markets are where the real money is made. Here are my favorite props and finishing position bets.

Top-10 Finish: Tony Finau (+250)

Tony is a perfect fit for Valhalla. He is long, he’s a great putter, and he has a ton of experience. He’s been a bit inconsistent this year, but he always shows up at the majors. He has three top-10s in his last five majors. At +250 to finish top-10, this is almost free money. He’s too talented to miss the cut, and he’s too consistent to finish outside the top 20.

Top-20 Finish: Justin Thomas (+120)

This is a narrative bet, pure and simple. Justin Thomas is a Kentucky native. He grew up dreaming of winning at Valhalla. He won the PGA Championship in 2017 and 2022. He’s been struggling with his form, but the home crowd energy is going to be electric. He knows every blade of grass on this course. At plus-money to finish top-20, I’m betting on the heart and the history. He might not win, but he’s not going to embarrass himself in front of his home fans.

First Round Leader: Cameron Young (+5000)

Cam Young is a bomber who loves fast starts. He’s been struggling with his consistency, but he’s a great “live dog” for the first round. If he gets off to a hot start with the driver, he can post a low number on Thursday. This is a longshot, but it’s a fun one.

Key Trends and Final Predictions for the 2024 PGA Championship

Let’s look at the data. Since 2000, every winner of the PGA Championship has been inside the top-30 in the world ranking. That’s a strong trend. It also favors players who are in their prime (age 25-35). This bodes well for Schauffele and DeChambeau.

My Final Prediction: This tournament is going to be a slugfest. The weather in Louisville is supposed to be warm, which will make the ball fly. I expect to see a lot of low scores, but the course will tighten up on the weekend. I think we see a playoff.

I’m fading the LIV guys who haven’t played competitive 72-hole golf in a month. Brooks Koepka is always a threat, but I think the “rust” factor is real. I’m also fading Jon Rahm, who has been dealing with a foot injury and hasn’t looked sharp.

My official pick to win: Xander Schauffele. He’s been knocking on the door for years. He’s the best player without a major. Valhalla is the perfect stage for his game. He’s long, he’s accurate, and he’s ready. I’m betting a unit on him outright, and I’m sprinkling a half-unit on Bryson and Hideki.

Conclusion: The Bear’s Bottom Line

This is the most exciting major of the year for me. The PGA Championship always delivers drama, and with the current state of professional golf, the stakes are higher than ever. Whether you’re a casual fan or a degenerate gambler like me, this week is for you.

Remember, these are real bets. I’m risking my own bankroll on these picks. I’m not just throwing darts. I believe Xander Schauffele is the class of the field, and the value is too good to pass up. Don’t be afraid to take a swing on a longshot like DeChambeau or Matsuyama.

Good luck, and as always, bet responsibly. The Bear is locked and loaded for Valhalla. Let’s cash these tickets.

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Source: Based on news from Fox Sports.