Are you not being entertained? The decline of the open-play goal
Something’s shifting in the Premier League, and it’s not just the players. We’re seeing a significant change in how goals are being scored. Is the beautiful game becoming a beautiful set-piece routine? Let’s dive into the data and explore the curious case of the disappearing open-play goal.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Fewer Open Play Goals This Season
One of the biggest talking points of the Premier League season thus far is the noticeable decrease in goals originating from open play. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing a surge in goals scored from set-pieces. Comparing the first 11 games of this season to the same period last year reveals a startling trend.
A massive 39 fewer goals have been scored in open play, while a corresponding 26 more goals have come from team set-pieces and penalties. This translates to an overall decrease of 13 goals across the league. But it’s not just the goals; the attacking intent seems to be changing too.
Looking at the bigger picture, the number of shots teams are taking during open play has plummeted by a staggering 370 compared to the same stage last season! It’s a significant drop that can’t be ignored.
Interestingly, despite the increase in set-piece goals, the number of shots generated from set-pieces (excluding penalties) has only increased by two. This highlights just how efficient teams are becoming at converting dead-ball situations.
The numbers translate to an average of 2.74 goals per game from the 301 goals scored in 110 Premier League games. If this trend continues, it will be the lowest for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69).
However, the 196 open-play goals scored average out to 1.78 per game and, if the rates stay the same, it is on track to be the lowest in 16 years since 2009-10 (1.76).
In fact, 2009-10 is also the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season’s rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Teams Are Driving This Goalscoring Revolution?
So, who are the main culprits (or masterminds) behind this shift in goalscoring patterns? Let’s take a look at which teams are contributing the most to this evolving trend:
- Wolves: Have experienced the most significant decline in open-play goals, netting just four in 11 games, 10 fewer than last season.
- London Clubs: A prevalent decline in open-play goals among five of London’s seven clubs.
- Manchester City: Bucking the trend! The Citizens have seen the biggest increase, with almost all of their goals originating from open play.
The Rise of Set-Piece Specialists
While some teams struggle to find the back of the net in open play, others are mastering the art of the set-piece. Arsenal and Chelsea have notably increased their set-piece goal tally, compensating for the decrease in their open-play goals.
Manchester United has doubled the amount of set-piece goals scored after eleven games, as opposed to the first 11 games last season, before Ruben Amorim took charge.
Manchester City has scored three fewer than last season and Nottingham Forest, potentially due to a change in style they have been trying to implement.
What Does the Future Hold for Open Play?
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season’s top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to buck the trend so far by doing the exact opposite.
Will this reliance on set-pieces continue to define the season, or will teams rediscover their attacking flair and find new ways to unlock defenses in open play? Only time will tell if the open play goal will return to its former glory or become a relic of Premier League past.
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