Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart on Pace for Reds’ First 40-40 Season: A Historic Race Brewing in Cincinnati

It is only the middle of April, the grass is still dewy, and the sample sizes are small. But in the heart of Cincinnati, something extraordinary is brewing. Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are not just off to hot starts—they are on an unprecedented collision course with history. Both Cincinnati Reds stars are currently on pace to achieve the franchise’s first-ever 40-40 season (40 home runs and 40 stolen bases). And if the early numbers hold, we aren’t just talking about one player rewriting the record books. We are talking about two.

As of mid-April, De La Cruz has crushed 10 home runs and swiped 8 bases, projecting to a staggering 55 homers and 44 steals. Stewart, the rising power-speed threat, has 9 homers and 7 steals, putting him on pace for 50 dingers and 40 thefts. While April statistics are notoriously volatile, the underlying talent and approach suggest this is no fluke. The Reds have never had a 40-40 player. Not once in 153 seasons. That drought may end in 2025—and perhaps with a surplus of fireworks.

The Ghosts of 40-40 Past: How Close Have the Reds Come?

To understand the magnitude of what De La Cruz and Stewart are chasing, you have to look back at the near-misses in Reds history. The closest any Cincinnati player has come to the 40-40 milestone was Eric Davis in 1987. The electrifying outfielder posted a season for the ages: 37 home runs and 50 stolen bases in just 129 games. Injuries limited his plate appearances, but his pace was undeniable. Davis remains the gold standard for Reds power-speed combos, but he fell three homers short of the magical number.

Beyond Davis, only two other Reds have ever reached the 30-30 club (30 homers, 30 steals):

• Brandon Phillips (2007): 30 home runs, 32 stolen bases
• Barry Larkin (1996): 33 home runs, 36 stolen bases

That’s it. No one in franchise history has ever hit 40 homers and stolen 40 bases in the same season. Not the Big Red Machine. Not Joey Votto. Not even the legendary Ken Griffey Jr. (who stole 56 bases in 1997 but hit 56 homers, not 40-40). The 40-40 club remains one of baseball’s rarest achievements, and the Reds have been shut out since 1882.

Now, two teammates are threatening to break that barrier simultaneously. It’s a scenario so improbable that even the most optimistic Reds fan might pinch themselves.

Why Elly De La Cruz Is the Favorite to Make History

Elly De La Cruz is the most physically gifted player to wear a Reds uniform since Eric Davis. At 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, he possesses a rare blend of raw power and elite sprint speed. His early 2025 numbers—10 homers and 8 steals—are not just a hot streak; they represent a refined approach. After a 2024 season where he struck out 33 percent of the time, De La Cruz has cut his whiff rate to 26 percent while maintaining a 15 percent walk rate. That plate discipline is the key to sustaining a 40-40 pace.

Experts point to his barrel rate (15.2 percent) and hard-hit percentage (54 percent) as indicators that the power is legitimate. Meanwhile, his stolen base success rate (89 percent) shows he’s picking his spots wisely. “He’s not just running wild,” says MLB Network analyst Dan O’Dowd. “He’s reading pitchers, getting better jumps, and using his speed to create chaos. That’s the formula for a 40-40 season.”

The biggest question for De La Cruz is durability. He has already missed time with minor leg soreness in 2024, and a 162-game grind is brutal for a player who relies on explosive movements. But if he stays healthy, his current pace of 55 homers and 44 steals is actually conservative. He could flirt with 60-50 territory, which would rank among the greatest single seasons in MLB history.

Sal Stewart: The Underrated Threat with 40-40 Pedigree

While De La Cruz grabs the headlines, Sal Stewart is quietly matching him step for step. The 22-year-old infielder, who came up through the Reds’ system as a second baseman and third baseman, has emerged as a complete offensive force. His 9 home runs and 7 steals through April are remarkable for a player who was never considered a base-stealing threat in the minors. But Stewart has transformed his body and his game.

Stewart’s launch angle has increased by four degrees this season, and his average exit velocity sits at 92.1 mph. He’s pulling the ball in the air more often, which has led to a surge in home runs. At the same time, he has stolen bases in seven of eight attempts, showing improved instincts on the bases. “Sal is a student of the game,” says Reds hitting coach Joel McKeithan. “He studies pitchers’ move times. He’s not just fast—he’s smart. That’s why he’s running more.”

Stewart’s path to 40-40 is more reliant on maintaining his power surge. His career-high in homers before 2025 was 18 in the minors. But his current pace of 50 homers is supported by a fly ball percentage of 44 percent and a home run per fly ball rate of 22 percent—both elite marks. If he can keep the ball in the air, he has a legitimate shot at joining De La Cruz in the 40-40 club.

How Rare Is a 40-40 Season in MLB History?

To put this in perspective, only six players in MLB history have ever achieved a 40-40 season. The list is a who’s who of legends:

• Jose Canseco (1988): 42 HR, 40 SB – The original
• Barry Bonds (1996): 42 HR, 40 SB
• Alex Rodriguez (1998): 42 HR, 46 SB
• Alfonso Soriano (2006): 46 HR, 41 SB
• Matt Kemp (2011): 39 HR, 40 SB – He missed by one homer; not officially in the club
• Ronald Acuña Jr. (2023): 41 HR, 73 SB – The most recent, and the only 40-70 season

That’s it. In over 150 years of baseball, only five players have officially reached 40-40 (Kemp’s 39 homers in 2011 is a famous near-miss). The feat requires a rare combination of power, speed, health, and opportunity. For two players on the same team to be on pace for it in the same season is statistically absurd. It would be like having two quarterbacks on pace for 5,000 passing yards in the same NFL season.

Expert Analysis: Can Both Reds Stars Sustain the Pace?

I reached out to three baseball analysts for their takes on the sustainability of these historic paces. Here’s what they said:

Tom Verducci (Sports Illustrated): “Elly De La Cruz has the raw tools, but the strikeout rate is still a concern. He’s improved, but pitchers will adjust. The stolen bases are easier to maintain than the home runs. I think he ends up with 38 homers and 45 steals—close, but not 40-40. Stewart is the bigger surprise. He’s a better pure hitter than De La Cruz, and his approach is more sustainable. I actually think Stewart has a better chance to hit 40 homers than Elly does.”

Jessica Mendoza (ESPN): “The key for both is health. The Reds are going to want to protect these guys. They might get rest days, especially against tough right-handers. If they each play 150 games, I could see De La Cruz getting to 42 homers and 48 steals. Stewart might fall short on homers—maybe 36—but he’ll steal 45 bases. One of them gets there. Both? That’s a stretch.”

Buster Olney (ESPN): “What we’re seeing is the evolution of the modern player. Teams are encouraging stolen bases again. The rule changes (bigger bases, pickoff limits) have helped. De La Cruz is the most dynamic player in the game right now. I’ll bet on him to get 40-40. Stewart is the wild card. If he keeps hitting the ball this hard, he’s a 35-homer guy. But 40? That requires a career year. He’s having one so far.”

The Verdict: A Season for the Ages in Cincinnati

Let’s be clear: April projections are fun, but they are not predictions. The history of baseball is littered with players who started hot and faded. But the combination of talent, approach, and opportunity for both Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart is undeniable. The Reds have never had a 40-40 player. They now have two players on pace to do it in the same season.

If one of them achieves the milestone, it will be a franchise-defining moment. If both do it, it would be one of the most remarkable statistical achievements in MLB history—rivaling the Bash Brothers, the 1998 home run chase, or Acuña’s 2023 campaign. The Great American Ball Park is buzzing, and for good reason.

Prediction: Elly De La Cruz finishes with 42 home runs and 46 stolen bases, becoming the first Red in history to join the 40-40 club. Sal Stewart falls just short with 37 homers and 42 steals, but his performance cements him as a superstar. The Reds, powered by this dynamic duo, make a deep playoff run. And for the first time in Cincinnati’s long, storied history, the 40-40 dream becomes reality.

April is just the opening act. The main event is coming. Buckle up, Reds country.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.