How Does the NHL Draft Lottery Work? Everything You Need to Know for 2024

For fans of teams finishing at the bottom of the NHL standings, the spring brings a unique blend of despair and hope. The season is over, but the NHL Draft Lottery offers a lifeline—a chance to land a generational talent who can change the trajectory of a franchise. But if you’ve ever tried to follow the lottery results in real-time, you know it’s not as simple as the worst team getting the first pick. The process is layered, complex, and often controversial.

In this guide, I’ll break down exactly how the NHL draft lottery works, which teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, their exact odds, and the elite prospects who make this year’s lottery so crucial. Let’s cut through the confusion and get to the puck drop.

The Mechanics: How the NHL Draft Lottery Actually Works

Before we dive into odds and prospects, you need to understand the core system. The NHL uses a weighted lottery system, not a simple reverse-order draft. Here’s the step-by-step breakdown:

Step 1: The Non-Playoff Teams Only the 16 teams that fail to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs are eligible for the lottery. However, not all 16 have an equal chance at the No. 1 pick. This is where the “lottery” part gets tricky.

Step 2: The Two-Lottery Format The NHL holds two separate lottery draws. The First Lottery determines the team that wins the right to pick No. 1 overall. The Second Lottery determines the team that wins the No. 2 overall pick. Important: A team cannot win both the No. 1 and No. 2 picks. If a team wins the first lottery, they are removed from the second draw.

Step 3: The Ping-Pong Balls The league uses 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14. A computer randomly selects four balls, creating a four-number combination. There are 1,001 possible combinations. The 1,001st combination (11-12-13-14) is designated as a “redraw” and is not assigned to any team. The remaining 1,000 combinations are distributed among the 16 non-playoff teams based on their regular-season points percentage.

Step 4: The “Max Two Spots” Rule This is the most important rule for fans. A team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots to win the lottery. In practice, this means only the bottom 11 teams (by points percentage) can actually win the No. 1 pick. Teams ranked 12th through 16th (the “bubble” teams) can only win the No. 2 pick, and if they are not selected in the first draw, they are locked into their original draft position or can move down if a lower-ranked team jumps ahead.

Step 5: The Final Order After the two lottery draws, the remaining picks (3 through 16) are filled in reverse order of the regular-season standings, with the caveat that the three lottery winners (No. 1 and No. 2) are removed from their original slots, pushing other teams down.

Which Teams Can Move Up to No. 1? Full Odds Breakdown

Now, let’s get to the numbers that matter. For the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery, here are the teams eligible to win the No. 1 overall pick, along with their exact odds based on their finish in the regular season. Remember, only the bottom 11 teams can win the top pick.

• San Jose Sharks: 25.5% chance (highest odds, finished last overall)
• Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5% chance
• Anaheim Ducks: 11.5% chance
• Columbus Blue Jackets: 9.5% chance
• Montreal Canadiens: 8.5% chance
• Utah (formerly Arizona Coyotes): 7.5% chance
• Ottawa Senators: 6.5% chance
• Seattle Kraken: 6.0% chance
• Calgary Flames: 5.0% chance
• New Jersey Devils: 3.5% chance (via a conditional pick from the Timo Meier trade)
• Buffalo Sabres: 3.0% chance

Key Insight: The San Jose Sharks are the clear favorites, but remember—the NHL lottery has a history of shocking results. In 2023, the Chicago Blackhawks jumped from the 3rd-best odds to win the No. 1 pick (and selected Connor Bedard). In 2022, the Montreal Canadiens moved from 1st to 1st, but the New Jersey Devils jumped from 5th to 2nd. Never assume the team with the best odds wins.

Teams that CANNOT win No. 1: The Philadelphia Flyers (12th), Minnesota Wild (13th), Pittsburgh Penguins (14th), St. Louis Blues (15th), and Detroit Red Wings (16th) can only win the No. 2 pick. Their odds for No. 2 range from 2.5% (Flyers) down to 0.5% (Red Wings).

Who Are the Best Players Available in the 2024 Draft?

The lottery is only exciting because of the players waiting in the wings. The 2024 draft class is considered deep, but it lacks a single “can’t-miss” generational talent like Connor Bedard (2023) or Connor McDavid (2015). However, there are franchise cornerstones available. Here are the top three prospects, according to NHL Central Scouting and independent analysts.

1. Macklin Celebrini (Center, Boston University) – The consensus No. 1 pick. Celebrini is a dynamic two-way center who dominated the NCAA as a 17-year-old, winning the Hobey Baker Award (first freshman ever to do so). He has elite hockey IQ, a lethal wrist shot, and plays a 200-foot game. Think of a slightly smaller version of Jonathan Toews with more offensive flash. He is the prize.

2. Ivan Demidov (Right Wing, SKA St. Petersburg – KHL) – A supremely skilled Russian winger with dazzling hands and playmaking vision. Demidov has drawn comparisons to Kirill Kaprizov and Nikita Kucherov. The big question: his KHL contract and the uncertainty of Russian players coming to North America. If a team is confident in his timeline, he could be a star.

3. Artyom Levshunov (Defenseman, Michigan State University) – A big, mobile, right-shot defenseman who excels in transition. Levshunov has the size (6’2″, 205 lbs) and offensive instincts to be a top-pairing blueliner. He’s the clear No. 1 defenseman in this class and could go as high as No. 2 overall.

Other Notable Names: Cayden Lindstrom (C, Medicine Hat – WHL) is a power forward with size and speed, but injury concerns have dropped his stock. Zayne Parekh (D, Saginaw – OHL) is an offensive dynamo from the blue line, and Beckett Sennecke (RW, Oshawa – OHL) is a late riser with elite puck skills.

Expert Analysis: What Each Top Team Should Do

Let’s put on the GM hat for a moment. Here’s my analysis of how the lottery could shape the future for the teams with the best odds:

San Jose Sharks (25.5%): If they win, they take Macklin Celebrini without hesitation. He’s a California-born kid who would be the face of the franchise for a decade. If they fall to No. 2 or No. 3, they likely take Demidov or Levshunov. The Sharks need everything, but a center of Celebrini’s caliber is the fastest rebuild catalyst.

Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%): After landing Bedard last year, the Hawks are already ahead of schedule. If they win again, they take Celebrini and form an absurd 1-2 punch down the middle. If they pick second, Ivan Demidov is the perfect winger to pair with Bedard. The Hawks need elite scoring, and Demidov provides it.

Anaheim Ducks (11.5%): The Ducks already have a franchise center in Leo Carlsson and a top-pair defenseman in Pavel Mintyukov. They need dynamic wingers. If they land Celebrini, they trade from a position of strength. If they pick second, Ivan Demidov is the ideal fit—a playmaking winger to feed Carlsson.

Montreal Canadiens (8.5%): The Habs desperately need a top-line center. If they win, Celebrini is the dream. If they fall to No. 3 or No. 4, Artyom Levshunov or Cayden Lindstrom become intriguing. Levshunov would give them a future top pair with Kaiden Guhle, while Lindstrom offers size down the middle.

Predictions and Final Thoughts

Predicting the NHL draft lottery is a fool’s errand—the ping-pong balls have a mind of their own. But based on history and the current odds, here’s my best estimate:

Prediction: The San Jose Sharks will win the No. 1 pick and select Macklin Celebrini. The odds are in their favor, and the hockey gods owe them after years of futility. For the No. 2 pick, I see a dark horse—the Montreal Canadiens jumping up from 5th to 2nd, selecting Ivan Demidov and electrifying the Bell Centre.

Wild Card: Don’t sleep on the Utah franchise. A new market with a new identity could get a massive boost by winning the lottery and landing Celebrini. That would be a storybook moment for hockey in the desert-turned-mountain.

Conclusion: The NHL draft lottery is a high-stakes gamble where hope is distributed by random number generators. For fans of the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Ducks, Tuesday night (the lottery date) is more important than any game they played all season. One lucky team will land Macklin Celebrini. The other 15 will have to trust their scouting staff to find a star at No. 2, No. 3, or deeper in the first round. That’s the beauty—and the brutality—of the NHL’s great equalizer.

Stay glued to the broadcast. The ping-pong balls are about to drop.

Source: Based on news from ESPN.