NFL Week 17 Christmas Day Odds: Expert Picks for Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs & More

The NFL’s Christmas Day tradition continues to grow, and this year, the league is delivering a full slate of holiday football that mirrors a classic Sunday. Week 17 kicks off with three pivotal Thursday matchups spread across the day, each with significant playoff implications. From the historic NFC East rivalry in the early window to a prime-time AFC West showdown under the lights, the holiday gridiron action is a gift for football fans. We’re breaking down the odds, analyzing the key matchups, and providing expert picks for the straight-up winner in each Christmas Day contest. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

A Holiday Feast of Football: The Week 17 Christmas Slate

Forget the sugar plums; this Christmas, visions of touchdowns and playoff clinches will dance in fans’ heads. The NFL has scheduled a tripleheader designed for all-day viewing, with kickoffs at 1 p.m., 4:30 p.m., and 8:15 p.m. ET. The streaming landscape is also part of the story, with Netflix carrying the first two games and Amazon Prime Video hosting the nightcap. This distribution underscores the league’s evolving media strategy, making holiday football a centerpiece of entertainment. With the regular season winding down, every play carries amplified weight. Will contenders solidify their postseason position? Can spoilers play the role of the Grinch? Our contributor pool examines each game, picking the straight-up winners while also considering against-the-spread and total points angles.

Game 1: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (1 p.m. ET, Netflix)

The holiday action begins with one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries. The Dallas Cowboys journey to the nation’s capital to face the Washington Commanders. This NFC East duel is rarely straightforward, regardless of records. Dallas typically enters this contest with superior firepower, but divisional games on the road are a unique challenge. The Commanders, often playing with pride and passion in this rivalry, have historically saved some of their best performances for Dallas.

Key Factors & Analysis:

• Dallas’s Road Test: A recurring narrative for the Cowboys is their perceived vulnerability away from home. A Christmas Day atmosphere in Washington provides a tough environment, even if playoff hopes are dim for the hosts.
• Commanders’ Motivation: Playing the role of spoiler against their most hated rival is the ultimate motivation. A win here could derail Dallas’s quest for a higher seed or even a division title.
• Quarterback Play: The performance of the quarterbacks under pressure will be decisive. Can Washington’s defense generate enough disruption to force turnovers?

Expert Pick: While the rivalry factor is strong, the Cowboys’ overall talent and urgency in Week 17 should prevail. Expect a competitive first half, but Dallas to pull away late, covering the spread in the process.

Game 2: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix)

The late afternoon slot features a critical NFC North battle as the Detroit Lions visit the Minnesota Vikings. This game has all the makings of a holiday classic. Both teams are likely jockeying for playoff positioning, with the division title potentially on the line. The Lions’ powerful offense, led by a strong run game and efficient passing, will be tested by a Vikings defense known for its aggressive scheme and ability to create takeaways.

Key Factors & Analysis:

• Division Dominance: The Lions have worked to establish themselves as the bullies of the NFC North. A win in Minnesota on Christmas would be a massive statement.
• Minnesota’s Home Field: The Vikings are traditionally tough at U.S. Bank Stadium, and the holiday crowd will be raucous. Their ability to protect the quarterback and establish any semblance of a run game is crucial.
• Coaching Chess Match: This is a fantastic tactical matchup between two of the league’s brighter coaching staffs. In-game adjustments will be paramount.

Expert Pick: This is the toughest call of the day. Given the likely playoff stakes and the venue, we’re leaning toward the Minnesota Vikings in a narrow, hard-fought victory. The points total could go over, as both teams have the offensive weapons to score.

Game 3: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video)

The nightcap sends the Denver Broncos into Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs. This AFC West matchup has regained its luster with the Broncos’ resurgence, adding stakes to a rivalry that Patrick Mahomes has largely dominated. Kansas City, often peaking in December, will look to use this prime-time stage to fine-tune their machine for the postseason. Denver’s physical defense will aim to be the kryptonite to the Chiefs’ explosive attack.

Key Factors & Analysis:

• Playoff Atmosphere: Both teams will likely be playoff-bound, but seeding and division crown implications will be massive. The Chiefs rarely lose at home in December.
• Denver’s Defensive Blueprint: The Broncos have had games where they’ve slowed down Kansas City’s offense. Replicating that formula on the road is the ultimate challenge.
• Mahomes in the Spotlight: On Christmas night, with the nation watching, Patrick Mahomes has a history of delivering magical performances. The Broncos’ secondary must be flawless.

Expert Pick: Until proven otherwise in a game of this magnitude, you ride with the champions. The Kansas City Chiefs win and cover at home. The point total may stay under if Denver’s defense can control the tempo, but Mahomes usually finds a way.

Final Christmas Day Predictions & How to Join the Pick ‘Em

Our expert contributor picks for the straight-up winners on NFL Christmas Day are: the Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Kansas City Chiefs. These picks are based on a combination of team talent, situational context, and historical trends in these specific matchups. Remember, the unpredictability of divisional games, especially on a holiday, is the only constant.

This year, through our partnership with Tallysight, you don’t have to just read our picks—you can challenge them. We invite you to join the community and make your own predictions for each game. Can the collective wisdom of fans outperform our seasoned contributors? There’s only one way to find out. Sign up in the widget below to enter your picks against the spread, on the totals, and for the straight-up winners. It adds an extra layer of engagement to your holiday viewing.

As you settle in for a day of family, food, and football, these three games promise to provide the drama and excitement that has become a welcome part of Christmas tradition. From the intensity of old rivalries to the high-stakes chess matches with playoff consequences, Week 17 on December 25th is set to be unforgettable. Enjoy the games, and may your holiday picks be winners.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.