Arrowhead Pride Staff Predictions: Who Will the Chiefs Select on Day 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft?

The smell of fresh turf, the tension of the clock, and the roar of the virtual draft room—we have finally made it to Thursday of NFL Draft weekend. For the Kansas City Chiefs, this is the most exciting of the three days they will work to build this year’s rookie class. With Super Bowl aspirations still burning bright, General Manager Brett Veach and Head Coach Andy Reid face a pivotal 24 hours that could shape the next era of Chiefs football.

The organization enters the evening with selections No. 9 and No. 29 to weaponize in forming the best draft class possible. While the front office has a reputation for aggressive maneuvering, the Arrowhead Pride draft team has a proven track record of predicting the picks. In 2023, the staff collectively nailed the selection of Kansas State edge defender Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round. For 2024, contributing editor Ron Kopp Jr. spotlighted BYU offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia and Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy long before they became Chiefs. Kopp even doubled down with a dart-throw prediction: “I have a feeling the Chiefs won’t get the value to select left tackle, and will sit tight and choose a receiver. One stands out as having Chiefs-like traits: Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy. His game-breaking speed is paired with legitimate route running.”

Now, let’s see if we can hit the mark for the 2026 NFL Draft. Here are predictions for this year’s first round from some of Arrowhead Pride’s staff, complete with expert analysis on how each player fits Kansas City’s championship puzzle.

Why Day 1 is Critical for Kansas City’s Roster Construction

The Chiefs enter 2026 with a roster that is both seasoned and hungry, but the margins for error are razor-thin. The offensive line, while improved, still lacks a long-term answer at left tackle. The pass rush, anchored by Chris Jones, needs a dynamic young edge rusher to complement George Karlaftis. And the wide receiver room, even with Xavier Worthy’s emergence, could use a physical boundary target to take pressure off Travis Kelce.

With two first-round picks, Veach has the ammunition to address multiple needs—or to package them for a top-five selection. “There are a lot of possibilities for Thursday evening, like trading up or trading down from either first-round position,” notes the Arrowhead Pride staff. The key is finding a player who can contribute immediately, not just a developmental project. Here’s how the staff sees the board falling.

Staff Prediction 1: Edge Rusher James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) at No. 9

Pete Sweeney, Senior Editor: “I’ve been watching the defensive front for months, and the Chiefs need a true speed rusher off the edge. James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee is the most explosive pass-rusher in this class. His first-step quickness and bend around the corner are elite. At No. 9, if he’s still on the board, Veach won’t hesitate.”

Analysis: Pearce Jr. recorded 10 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in his final season with the Volunteers. His ability to win with speed and a developing inside counter makes him a perfect fit for Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive scheme. The Chiefs have struggled to generate consistent pressure from the edge opposite Karlaftis, and Pearce would instantly become a double-digit sack threat. The only risk? He’s slightly undersized at 245 pounds, but his athletic profile mirrors that of Micah Parsons.

• Why it works: Immediate impact as a situational pass rusher, with starter upside by midseason.
• Potential downside: If a top offensive tackle falls, the staff might pivot to protect Patrick Mahomes.

Staff Prediction 2: Offensive Tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas) at No. 9

Ron Kopp Jr., Contributing Editor: “My gut says the Chiefs will stay aggressive on the offensive line. Kelvin Banks Jr. from Texas is the best left tackle in this draft. He has the footwork to handle speed rushers and the power to anchor against bull rushes. At No. 9, you’re getting a Day 1 starter who can protect Mahomes’ blindside for the next decade.”

Analysis: Banks Jr. started 37 games for the Longhorns, allowing just two sacks in his junior season. His 6-foot-4, 320-pound frame is ideal for the Chiefs’ zone-blocking scheme. The staff notes that Veach has prioritized the trenches in recent years, and with Jawaan Taylor potentially moving inside or to right tackle, Banks could lock down the left side. This pick would be a safe, high-floor selection that addresses a premium position.

• Why it works: Long-term stability at left tackle, a position the Chiefs have rotated since losing Orlando Brown Jr.
• Potential downside: Some scouts worry about his arm length (33 inches), which could limit his effectiveness against elite NFL pass rushers.

Staff Prediction 3: Wide Receiver Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) at No. 29

Matt Lane, Draft Analyst: “If the Chiefs grab an edge rusher or tackle at No. 9, I fully expect them to target a receiver at No. 29. Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona is a 6-foot-5, 210-pound mismatch machine. He’s not just a jump-ball guy—he runs crisp routes and has surprising YAC ability. This is the kind of weapon Mahomes has been missing since Tyreek Hill left.”

Analysis: McMillan caught 90 passes for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025. His catch radius and body control are elite, making him a red-zone nightmare. The staff believes he would complement Xavier Worthy perfectly—Worthy stretches the field vertically, while McMillan dominates the intermediate areas and sideline. This pick would give Mahomes a true No. 1 receiver for the next five years.

• Why it works: Fills a clear need for a big-bodied receiver who can win contested catches.
• Potential downside: McMillan’s 40-yard dash time (projected 4.5) might cause him to slide, but his production is undeniable.

Staff Prediction 4: Trade Down from No. 9, Select Cornerback Will Johnson (Michigan) at No. 15

Jared Sapp, Managing Editor: “I think the Chiefs will listen to trade offers at No. 9. If a quarterback-needy team like the Raiders or Giants wants to move up, Veach could slide back and still land a top-tier cornerback. Will Johnson from Michigan is a shutdown corner with 6-foot-2 size and 4.4 speed. He’s the best cover corner in this class, and pairing him with Trent McDuffie would give Spagnuolo the best secondary in football.”

Analysis: Johnson allowed a completion rate of just 38% in man coverage in 2025, with three interceptions. The Chiefs have invested heavily in the secondary, but adding a long, physical corner to play opposite McDuffie would allow L’Jarius Sneed (if re-signed) to move to a nickel role. By trading down, Kansas City could also acquire an extra Day 2 pick to address the offensive line or defensive line depth.

• Why it works: Acquires an elite talent while recouping draft capital for future moves.
• Potential downside: Cornerback isn’t the most pressing need, and the Chiefs might miss out on a top tackle or edge rusher.

Staff Prediction 5: Bold Move Up to No. 5 for Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State)

Anonymous Staff Member: “I have a feeling the Chiefs will go all-in. If Abdul Carter from Penn State is still available at No. 5, Veach will package picks No. 9 and No. 29 to move up. Carter is a generational pass-rushing talent—he has 17.5 sacks in two seasons and can play standing up or with his hand in the dirt. This is the kind of player who wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.”

Analysis: Carter’s combination of power, speed, and bend is rare. He dominated the Big Ten, and his 4.5-second 40-yard dash at 260 pounds is absurd. The staff notes that the Chiefs have never been afraid to trade up for a difference-maker (see: Patrick Mahomes in 2017). If they believe Carter is the final piece for a dominant defense, they’ll pull the trigger. However, this move would leave them without a second first-round pick and limit their ability to address other needs.

• Why it works: Acquires a game-wrecker who can transform the defense for years.
• Potential downside: Losing two first-round picks for one player is risky, especially if Carter doesn’t live up to the hype.

Final Verdict: The Most Likely Outcome

After weighing the staff predictions and analyzing the current roster, the Arrowhead Pride team believes the most probable scenario is a two-pronged approach: select an offensive tackle at No. 9—likely Kelvin Banks Jr. or a similar prospect—and then use No. 29 to grab a dynamic receiver like Tetairoa McMillan. This strategy addresses the two biggest offensive needs while leaving the defense to be filled on Day 2.

However, the wildcard remains Brett Veach’s willingness to trade. If a quarterback falls or a team overpays to move up, the Chiefs could pivot to a defensive star. “The staff has hit on these predictions before, and we’re confident in our read of the room,” says Pete Sweeney. “But the draft is unpredictable. That’s what makes it so exciting.”

One thing is certain: When the clock starts ticking on Thursday night, the Kansas City Chiefs will be ready to make a move that keeps them in Super Bowl contention for years to come. Whether it’s a tackle, a receiver, or a trade-up for a defensive star, Day 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft will be a defining moment for this franchise.

Stay tuned to Arrowhead Pride for live updates, instant grades, and in-depth analysis of every Chiefs pick.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.