Colts at the Crossroads: To Tag or Not to Tag in a Critical Offseason?

The NFL’s annual game of high-stakes chess has begun. As of February 17th, the franchise tag window is officially open, giving all 32 teams, including the Indianapolis Colts, a powerful but precarious tool to wield. With the deadline set for March 3rd at 4 PM EST, General Manager Chris Ballard and his front office have a critical decision to make. In an offseason defined by continuity and building upon a surprisingly successful 2023 campaign, the Colts’ approach to the tag will signal their priorities and reveal their confidence in securing their core for the long haul. Will they use their one tag to lock down a cornerstone player, or will they let the market play out, trusting their culture and cap space to get deals done?

The Franchise Tag: A Double-Edged Sword in Indianapolis

For the Colts, a team meticulously constructing its roster through the draft, the franchise tag is often viewed as a last resort—a necessary evil rather than a preferred strategy. The tag offers a fully guaranteed one-year deal, calculated as the average of the top five salaries at a player’s position or 120% of their prior salary, whichever is higher. It’s a glorified placeholder, designed to buy time for long-term negotiations. However, it comes with significant risk. A tagged player can feel slighted, and the hefty one-year cap hit can restrict a team’s flexibility. For Indianapolis, a franchise that prides itself on locker room harmony and shrewd financial management, the tag is a tool to be used with extreme precision, if at all.

The mechanics are crucial. The Colts would almost certainly use the non-exclusive franchise tag, which allows other teams to negotiate with the player. If an offer sheet is signed, the Colts would have the right to match or receive two first-round picks as compensation. The more restrictive (and costly) exclusive tag is rarely used. Once applied, the clock starts ticking: the team has until July 15th to work out a multi-year extension. If that date passes, the player must play the season on the tag, and talks cannot resume until the following offseason.

Prime Candidates: Analyzing the Colts’ Impending Free Agents

Indianapolis has a list of key contributors set to hit the open market. Using the tag requires a player worthy of a top-five salary at his position and whose absence would create a gaping hole. Let’s examine the realistic contenders.

• Michael Pittman Jr., WR: Far and away the most discussed candidate. Pittman is coming off a career year, establishing himself as the unequivocal WR1 and a security blanket for quarterback Anthony Richardson. Letting a 26-year-old, homegrown star of his caliber test free agency seems unthinkable. The wide receiver franchise tag is projected to be a steep figure, likely north of $21 million. While costly, it might be the leverage play needed to finalize a long-term deal that secures Pittman for his prime.
• Grover Stewart, DT: The heartbeat of the run defense. The Colts’ defensive collapse during his six-game suspension in 2023 underscored his immense value. Stewart is a premier run-stuffer, a culture-setter, and a player Ballard has repeatedly valued. However, investing the defensive tackle franchise tag—projected near $20 million—on a player who turns 31 this year is a significant commitment for a non-pass-rushing interior lineman.
• Kenny Moore II, CB: The league’s premier slot corner had a resurgent, Pro Bowl-caliber season. His unique versatility and leadership are integral to Gus Bradley’s defense. Yet, the cornerback tag number is astronomically high (projected over $19 million), typically reserved for outside, lockdown corners. Tagging a slot specialist at that price is historically uncommon and likely prohibitive.

Other key free agents like safety Julian Blackmon, linebacker Zack Moss, or punter Rigoberto Sanchez present immense value but do not reach the financial threshold warranting a tag.

Ballard’s Blueprint: Predicting the Colts’ Move

Predicting Chris Ballard requires reading his philosophical tea leaves. He has used the tag only once in his tenure (on kicker Adam Vinatieri in 2016). He consistently preaches “re-signing our own” and building through the draft, viewing the tag as a potential disruption to good-faith negotiations. The Colts also find themselves in an enviable position with ample salary cap space, giving them the flexibility to compete in free agency without the crutch of the tag.

So, what will they do? The smart money is on a calculated, patient approach.

Scenario 1: The Pittman Insurance Policy This is the most plausible use. If negotiations with Pittman’s camp hit an impasse as the March 3rd deadline nears, applying the tag ensures he doesn’t reach the open market. It would be a protective measure, not a desired outcome. The subsequent five-month window would then be used to hammer out a contract that lowers his 2024 cap hit and locks him up for 4-5 years. This scenario balances urgency with long-term planning.

Scenario 2: The Stewart Surprise While less likely, it cannot be completely dismissed given Stewart’s irreplaceable role. If the market for defensive tackles explodes and Ballard fears being outbid, the tag could be deployed to maintain the defensive identity. However, a multi-year deal for a player of Stewart’s age and skill set seems more logical for both sides than a one-year, $20 million pill.

Scenario 3: No Tag at All This is a very strong possibility. Ballard may be so confident in his ability to re-sign Pittman and Stewart before free agency begins—or so averse to the tag’s negative connotations—that he lets the deadline pass. This would be a bold declaration of faith in his organization’s culture and negotiating prowess, but it would also carry the risk of a bidding war.

The Verdict: Building Bridges, Not Barriers

The Indianapolis Colts stand at a moment of positive momentum. With a healthy Anthony Richardson, a motivated Shane Steichen, and a roster brimming with young talent, the focus is on sustainable growth. The franchise tag, while a powerful tool, often builds a short-term bridge that can feel more like a barrier in player relations.

Our final prediction: The Colts will use the franchise tag on Michael Pittman Jr., but only as a last-minute safeguard. The priority will be, and has been, to sign him to a long-term extension before the tag deadline ever arrives. For Grover Stewart and others, the Colts will rely on their established relationships and cap space to reach agreements. Ballard’s history suggests he views the tag as a failure of negotiation, not a strategy. In this critical offseason, expect the Colts to work diligently to build lasting contracts, not place temporary tags, ensuring their core remains intact for this promising chapter of Colts football.

The window is open, but the goal in Indianapolis is to build a door everyone can walk through together for years to come.

Source: Based on news from Yahoo Sports.