How MLB’s Closer Struggles Will Impact the Rest of the Season and Postseason

For decades, the MLB closer role was a sacred, almost mythical position. Names like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Dennis Eckersley defined an era where the ninth inning was a foregone conclusion. If your team held a lead after eight, the game was over. But in 2024, that certainty has evaporated. Bullpens across Major League Baseball are more volatile than ever, and closers with a capital C are few and far between—even for baseball’s elite teams.

We are witnessing a seismic shift in how games are finished. The traditional one-inning, three-out specialist is becoming a luxury that few franchises can afford. The struggles of high-profile closers are not just isolated incidents; they are a systemic issue that will fundamentally alter the landscape of the regular season and, most critically, the postseason. From untimely blown saves to inexplicable command issues, the ninth inning has become a minefield. This article breaks down how these struggles will impact the rest of the season, the trade deadline, and October baseball.

The Epidemic of the Unreliable Ninth Inning

The numbers don’t lie. Through the first half of the 2024 season, the league-wide blown save percentage has ticked upward significantly. While we aren’t seeing a complete collapse of every bullpen, the “proven closer” label is losing its luster. Consider the plight of teams with World Series aspirations. The Atlanta Braves, despite their offensive firepower, have cycled through multiple options, with Raisel Iglesias showing flashes of brilliance but also moments of vulnerability. The Houston Astros, a franchise built on a shutdown bullpen, have seen Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader (after a historically slow start) struggle to consistently lock down games.

This isn’t just about one bad week. The volatility stems from a few core factors. First, the increased velocity and spin rate of modern pitching puts immense stress on arms. Pitchers throwing 98+ mph in high-leverage situations are more prone to injury and fatigue. Second, the rise of the “opener” and bulk-innings relievers has blurred the lines of traditional roles. When a pitcher who normally throws the sixth inning is asked to close, the mental and physical adjustment is massive. Finally, the analytical revolution has made hitters better prepared. They are no longer guessing; they have detailed heat maps and swing-path data for every reliever in the league.

This creates a perfect storm. The elite closers—Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians, Edwin Díaz of the Mets (when healthy), and Hader— are still valuable, but even they are not immune to the chaos. For every dominant save, there is a shocking meltdown that leaves managers scrambling. The impact is immediate: teams that were once considered locks to win close games are now sweating bullets every time they hand the ball to their “closer.”

How the Trade Deadline Will Be Warped by Desperation

The closer struggles of the first half will have a direct and dramatic effect on the 2024 MLB trade deadline. General managers are no longer looking for a “closer” in the traditional sense. They are looking for high-leverage arms—any pitcher who can get outs in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning. The demand for reliable relievers will be astronomical, driving up prices to absurd levels.

Teams like the Miami Marlins, who possess a deep bullpen with Tanner Scott (a dominant lefty), and the Chicago White Sox, who have a flamethrower like Michael Kopech (despite his own consistency issues), will be the kings of the deadline. Expect to see contenders overpay for rental arms. Here is how the market will shift:

• Premium on rental closers: A pitcher like Scott, who is a free agent after 2024, might net a top-100 prospect simply because of the scarcity of reliable ninth-inning options.
• Teams will hoard arms: Contenders will trade for three or four relievers, not just one. The idea of a single “closer” is dead; teams want a stable of horses they can mix and match.
• Injury risks become acceptable: If a team has a pitcher with a history of arm trouble but elite stuff (think a healthy version of a high-strikeout arm), they will take the gamble. The need outweighs the risk.
• Under-the-radar trades: Look for trades involving setup men who have closing experience. A pitcher like Jason Foley of the Tigers or even a veteran like Craig Kimbrel (if available) becomes incredibly valuable because they have the “closer” pedigree, even if their numbers are average.

The impact on the standings will be immediate. A team that can land two reliable high-leverage arms at the deadline will gain a massive advantage over a rival that fails to do so. The Los Angeles Dodgers, for example, have a historically good offense but a bullpen that has been decimated by injuries. If they cannot fix the ninth inning, their 100-win pace could crumble in October.

Postseason Strategy: The Death of the Traditional Closer Role

If you think the regular season is volatile, wait until October. The postseason format—with its off days and travel—already favors teams with deep bullpens. But this year, the struggles of closers will force managers to completely rethink their strategy. The old model of “closer in the ninth, no matter what” is dead. We are entering the era of the leveraged matchup closer.

This means that in a critical Game 5 of the Division Series, you might see a team’s best reliever—let’s call him the “fireman”—enter in the seventh inning against the heart of the order, even if it means he doesn’t get the official save. The “closer” title will become a ceremonial badge, not a tactical decision. Here is what to expect in October:

• Multi-inning closers: The most successful postseason teams will be those who have a pitcher capable of getting 4-6 outs. Think of a Josh Hader being used for two innings, or a Devin Williams being brought in to face the top of the lineup in the eighth.
• Matchup-based ninth innings: Managers will not hesitate to use their second-best reliever to face a tough lefty in the ninth, even if their “closer” is a righty. The save statistic is meaningless compared to winning the game.
• Blow-ups will be catastrophic: Because bullpens are so volatile, a single blown save in a playoff series can be a death sentence. The mental fragility of a closer who has struggled in the regular season will be a massive liability. Teams will be terrified to trust a pitcher with a history of late-inning meltdowns.
• The “Opener” for the ninth inning: We might see managers use a hard-throwing reliever to start the ninth, then immediately pivot to a different pitcher if the first batter reaches base. It sounds radical, but it is the logical extension of the current instability.

The Baltimore Orioles are a prime example of a team that could benefit from this shift. They have a young, electric bullpen with arms like Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista (when healthy). They don’t have a single “closer”; they have a group of guys who can dominate. That flexibility is a weapon. Conversely, a team that rigidly sticks to a struggling “proven closer” (like a team relying on a veteran with a 5.00 ERA) will be exploited by savvy opponents.

Expert Analysis: What This Means for the Wild Card and Division Races

As a journalist who has covered this game for years, I can tell you that the closer crisis is the single most underreported factor in the 2024 pennant races. We love to talk about home runs and starting pitching, but the truth is that the team that wins the World Series this year will be the team that best navigates the ninth inning chaos. The Minnesota Twins, with Jhoan Duran and his 100+ mph splinker, have a theoretical advantage. The Philadelphia Phillies, with a deep and versatile bullpen led by José Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman, are built for this environment.

However, the biggest losers will be teams with a single, fragile closer. The Arizona Diamondbacks have had issues locking down games. The Texas Rangers, despite their 2023 title, have a bullpen that has been inconsistent. If these teams cannot find stability, they will be watching October from home.

My prediction is this: The era of the 40-save closer is effectively over for elite contenders. By the end of the season, we will see at least three or four playoff teams using a “closer by committee” approach, even if they publicly name a single pitcher for the role. The volatility is too high to trust one arm. The teams that embrace the chaos—that trade for multiple high-leverage arms and are willing to use their best pitcher in the most critical moment, regardless of the inning—will survive. The teams that cling to the old ways will be left holding a blown save in October.

Conclusion: Embrace the Chaos or Get Left Behind

The 2024 MLB season is a referendum on the value of the traditional closer. The evidence is overwhelming: the role is broken. The combination of increased velocity, advanced analytics, and sheer randomness has created a landscape where no lead is safe, and no closer is untouchable. This is not a temporary blip; it is the new reality of baseball.

For the rest of the season, expect more heartbreak, more blown saves, and more managerial second-guessing. The teams that will succeed are the ones that stop looking for a savior in the ninth inning and start building a relief corps that is deep, flexible, and ruthless. The trade deadline will be a feeding frenzy for arms. The postseason will be a chess match where the traditional closer is often a liability. The game has changed. The ninth inning is no longer a sanctuary; it is a battlefield. And only the most adaptable teams will survive.

Source: Based on news from ESPN.

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