Masters Tiers 2024: Ranking Favorites, Contenders, and Hopefuls at Augusta

The azaleas are blooming, the greens are humming, and the world’s best have descended upon Georgia’s most hallowed grounds. The Masters Tournament is more than a major; it’s an annual pilgrimage where legacies are forged and dreams are realized—or deferred. With a field blending timeless champions, current phenoms, and eager debutants, navigating the list of contenders requires a deeper look. We’ve broken down the field into distinct tiers, from the clear favorites carrying the weight of expectation to the longshots hoping simply to secure a weekend tee time.

Tier 1: The Clear-Cut Favorites

These are the men who will have the shortest odds on the board and the most intense scrutiny on every swing. Winning would be a surprise to no one.

Scottie Scheffler stands alone at the summit. The world number one arrives with a staggering aura of dominance, built on ball-striking so pure it defies modern analytics. His victory in 2022 proved he can tame Augusta, and his current form—multiple wins already this season—suggests a man playing a different game. The only question mark, as ever, hovers on the putting green. If his flat stick is even average, he is the undisputed man to beat.

Jon Rahm returns as the defending champion, a title that carries its own unique pressure. The Spaniard’s powerful, penetrating ball flight is tailor-made for Augusta National, and his switch to LIV Golf has done nothing to dim his competitive fire. He possesses the complete arsenal and the proven champion’s mentality to go back-to-back, a feat achieved only by Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods.

Tier 2: The Prime Contenders

This group has the proven major championship pedigree, the specific skill set for Augusta, or the scalding-hot form to slip on the Green Jacket. A win would be logical, but requires navigating past the top tier.

• Rory McIlroy: The narrative is immense. Can Rory McIlroy complete the career Grand Slam? His driving is a monumental weapon here, but Augusta’s crucible has been his kryptonite. His recent form shows flashes, but the quest for the slam adds a psychological hurdle no other player faces.
• Brooks Koepka: Never discount a healthy Koepka at a major. The five-time major winner is built for these stages, and his runner-up finish here last year is a stark reminder. His power and stoic demeanor in major pressure cookers make him a perpetual threat.
• Xander Schauffele: Perhaps the best current player without a major, Schauffele’s game has no weakness. He consistently finishes in the top-10, but the final leap to winner requires a killer instinct. His elegant, controlled style suits Augusta, and the breakthrough feels inevitable.
• Hideki Matsuyama: The 2021 champion knows every nuance of this property. When his iron play is sharp—as it has been this season—he is a menace. He operates with a quiet confidence at Augusta that few can match.

Tier 3: The Calculated Hopefuls

These players have the talent to win but come with more significant questions—be it recent form, injury, or inconsistent history at the Masters. They are the high-variance group that could produce a surprise champion.

Jordan Spieth is always an Augusta story. A winner in 2015 and a perennial threat, his magical short game and comfort on the grounds make him dangerous. However, his driving can be a wild adventure, and that volatility makes him a hopeful, not a favorite.

Viktor Hovland seemed on the cusp of a major breakthrough last year, but a puzzling downturn in form in 2024 has muted expectations. If he has rectified his short-game woes, his ball-striking is elite enough to contend.

Will Zalatoris is back from injury and his affinity for Augusta is undeniable (2nd in debut, 6th in 2023). His unique swing generates perfect trajectory for these greens. Can he put four rounds together after a long layoff?

This tier also includes Ludvig Åberg, the sublime talent making his debut. History is against him (no first-timer has won since 1979), but his effortless power and mature demeanor suggest he is no ordinary rookie.

Tier 4: The Intriguing Wild Cards & Veterans

A blend of past champions who know the secret passages and explosive talents who could get hot for four days.

• Tiger Woods: He is a tier unto himself. The five-time winner making the cut and playing all 72 holes would be a monumental achievement. A win seems a bridge too far, but with Tiger, we never say never. His mere presence electrifies the event.
• Cameron Smith: The putting wizard and former Champion Golfer of the Year has the creativity and grit for Augusta. If he’s hitting his approaches well, he can make a run from the periphery.
• Joaquin Niemann: The LIV standout has been vocal about his major ambitions and is playing inspired golf. He’s a dark horse with the all-around game to make serious noise.
• Dustin Johnson: The 2020 champion’s power is always an asset, but his current form is a mystery. On his day, he can still overpower the course.

Tier 5: The “Making the Cut” Brigade

For this group, a successful week is defined by playing the weekend, earning a future invitation, or simply soaking in the experience. It includes the aging legends, the inspiring amateurs, and the seasoned pros for whom Augusta’s challenges may be too steep this time around.

Names like Fred Couples (a fan favorite who defies time), Jose Maria Olazabal, and the contingent of past champions in their twilight years fall here. So too do many of the qualifying amateurs, for whom the memory of simply competing is the ultimate prize. It also encompasses solid tour players without a standout skill for Augusta, for whom avoiding big numbers and securing a top-44 finish is the realistic, honorable goal.

Predictions and Final Thoughts

Augusta National has a way of scripting stories we don’t anticipate. While the logical pick is Scottie Scheffler to claim his second Green Jacket, the course often favors those with intimate knowledge. This sets up a fascinating clash between the data-driven dominance of Scheffler and the seasoned, powerful resilience of Jon Rahm.

For a surprise contender, watch Hideki Matsuyama. His game is quietly perfectly tuned for this test, and he can operate under the radar. And never, ever count out the will of Rory McIlroy, though the weight of history remains a formidable opponent.

In the end, the Masters is a unique alchemy of skill, nerve, and course knowledge. The favorites carry the bets, the contenders hold the intrigue, and the hopefuls remind us that at Augusta, magic is always a possibility. One perfectly struck iron, one miraculous par save, or one sustained run of brilliance can etch a name into history. The stage is set for another unforgettable chapter.

Source: Based on news from ESPN.