MLB Picks Today: Brewers vs Rays and Reds vs Pirates Predictions for April 1

Happy April 1st, baseball fans. Or, as a certain segment of us still nostalgically refer to it, Sidd Finch Day—a tip of the cap to the legendary (and fictional) Mets prospect who could reportedly throw 168 mph. It’s a day for the unbelievable, the fluky, and the downright deceptive. So, as we dive into today’s MLB picks, let’s hope our analysis is grounded in reality and doesn’t leave us looking like the April Fool. After a tricky opening weekend, the season ledger sits at a humble 1-2-1, -1.17 Units. Time to get back on track. We’re focusing on two intriguing matchups: the Brewers visiting the Rays and a key NL Central duel between the Reds and Pirates.

Brewers vs. Rays: The Miz’s Electric, Wild Ride

If there’s one pitcher in MLB whose raw arsenal sometimes looks too good to be true, it’s Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers’ top prospect makes his second start of 2024, and the stuff is simply video game-esque. Last season, he cranked his fastball up to an average velocity of 99.2 mph. The advanced metrics love it even more, awarding it a Stuff+ score of 118, indicating it’s well above major league average. The results are staggering: a 32% strikeout rate and a whiff rate in the 80th percentile.

His 2024 debut last week was a masterpiece of dominance and wildness. He struck out 11 Chicago White Sox over five innings, posting a cartoonish 55% strikeout rate and a 58.1% whiff rate. When his mechanics are synced, he is virtually untouchable.

But alas, there are significant caveats. Those 11 Ks came against a White Sox lineup that, while possessing some power, is projected to be among the league leaders in strikeouts. The bigger, more persistent issue for The Miz is his command. He walked three Sox (15% walk rate) in that start, and last season he struggled with an 11.4% walk rate in the minors. Facing the disciplined, professional Tampa Bay Rays lineup is a completely different beast. The Rays grind at-bats, rarely chase, and punish mistakes. They won’t be as easily fooled by the high heat.

On the other side, the Rays counter with Zack Littell, the epitome of a crafty right-hander. Littell doesn’t overpower, but he commands the zone exceptionally well, limiting walks and forcing weak contact. The Brewers’ offense has shown early pop but can also be prone to swing-and-miss.

Key Factors for Brewers vs. Rays:

• Command vs. Patience: Can Misiorowski find the zone consistently against a team that won’t help him out?
• Bullpen Leverage: Both teams have strong relief corps, but a short Misiorowski start could tax Milwaukee early.
• Park Factor: The Trop is a pitcher-friendly environment, which may help contain any command-related mistakes.

Prediction: This game hinges entirely on which version of Jacob Misiorowski shows up. The Rays’ plate discipline is the perfect antidote to pure, wild stuff. Expect a tense, low-scoring affair early, but Tampa’s ability to work counts will likely force Misiorowski out by the 5th inning. The Rays’ bullpen and lineup grinding should secure a tight win. The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-135). The risk of Misiorowski’s wildness playing directly into the Rays’ greatest strength is too high to ignore.

Reds vs. Pirates: NL Central Grind Begins Early

This early-season series in Pittsburgh already feels important for two teams with postseason aspirations. The Reds send Hunter Greene to the mound, a pitcher with a similar profile to Misiorowski but with more MLB experience. Greene’s fastball is a weapon of mass destruction, but his secondary pitch development and consistency remain the questions. The Pirates counter with Martin Pérez, the veteran lefty who relies on ground balls, weak contact, and changing speeds to navigate lineups.

The Reds’ offense is a dynamic, young, and aggressive unit led by Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. They will look to run early and often, putting pressure on Pérez and catcher Henry Davis. However, they can also be susceptible to left-handed pitching and have shown a tendency to be streaky.

The Pirates’ lineup, featuring Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Oneil Cruz, has more balanced power than in years past. The key for them will be handling Greene’s elite velocity. If they can foul off the fastball and force him into the zone with his off-speed, they can do damage.

Key Factors for Reds vs. Pirates:

• Greene’s Pitch Mix: Can he effectively use his slider and changeup to keep Pirates hitters off his fastball?
• Reds’ Running Game: Pérez is slow to the plate. The Reds should be in motion constantly.
• PNC Park Factor: The deep left-field alley and generally pitcher-friendly confines could hold back both power attacks.

Prediction: This sets up as a classic power vs. finesse battle. Hunter Greene has the stuff to dominate, but the Pirates’ lefty-heavy lineup is a tough matchup. Martin Pérez will likely give up some traffic but will rely on his defense and induce double plays. We see this as a close, back-and-forth game decided late. Given the value and the likelihood of a tight contest, the total runs market is appealing. Both bullpens are solid but not unhittable. The Pick: OVER 8.5 Total Runs (-105). We’re betting that Greene gives up a couple of runs, Pérez gets nibbled at by the Reds’ speed, and the game opens up in the middle innings.

Today’s MLB Picks Summary & Final Thoughts

April 1st is a day for caution, both in life and in betting. We’re avoiding the spectacular and focusing on fundamental mismatches and value.

Official Picks for April 1:

• Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Rays Moneyline (-135). The Rays’ elite plate discipline is the kryptonite for a wild flamethrower like Misiorowski.
• Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 8.5 Total Runs (-105). Two contrasting styles and potent, young lineups should generate enough offense to clear this number.

Remember, Sidd Finch was a myth. The reality of baseball is that command and discipline almost always win out over unharnessed power in the long run. That’s the principle guiding our picks today. While Jacob Misiorowski’s arm is the stuff of legend, the Rays are the embodiment of a modern, patient offensive approach. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the energy and explosiveness of two rising NL Central teams should provide plenty of fireworks, making the over the smart play. Let’s hope today’s results are no joke.

Source: Based on news from Deadspin.

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