NBA Draft Lottery 2025: The Most Likely Picks for Every Lottery Team

The NBA Draft Lottery is the single most consequential night of the offseason for the league’s basement dwellers. With the ping-pong balls set to bounce on Sunday, the fate of entire franchises hangs in the balance. While the lottery determines the order, the draft board is already taking shape. From generational talents to high-floor role players, this year’s class is deep but lacks a consensus No. 1. Here is my expert breakdown of the most likely picks for every lottery team, factoring in needs, roster construction, and front-office tendencies.

Locked-In at the Top: The Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes

The 2025 draft is headlined by Duke freshman Cooper Flagg, a two-way phenom who projects as a franchise cornerstone. Every team in the top three would sprint to the podium to select him, but the odds are slim. The three worst teams—the Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets—each have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick. However, the math favors the Wizards slightly due to their desperate need for a primary scorer and defensive anchor. If Washington lands the top spot, Flagg is a lock. If they fall to No. 2 or 3, expect them to target Ace Bailey (Rutgers) or Dylan Harper (Rutgers), both of whom offer elite scoring upside.

For the Detroit Pistons, the calculus is different. They already have Cade Cunningham as a lead ball-handler. If they win the lottery, Flagg fits perfectly as a versatile forward. But if they drop to No. 3, the pick becomes tricky. Harper is a dynamic guard, but pairing him with Cade creates a logjam. The smarter move is Bailey, a 6’10” wing who can space the floor and defend multiple positions. The Charlotte Hornets are the wild card. With LaMelo Ball’s injury history and Brandon Miller’s emergence, they need a two-way big. If they pick third, Donovan Clingan (UConn) is the ideal rim-protecting center, though some scouts prefer Alex Sarr (France) for his mobility.

Mid-Lottery Mayhem: Best Fits for Teams 4-8

The middle of the lottery is where the draft gets fascinating. The Portland Trail Blazers (projected No. 4) are rebuilding around Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. They desperately need a long-term solution at power forward. Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite) is a fluid 6’10” playmaker who can handle the ball and shoot. He’s the perfect modern 4. If Buzelis is gone, Nikola Topic (Serbia) is a crafty guard who could run the second unit, but that feels redundant with Scoot. Portland’s front office loves upside, so expect them to swing for Buzelis.

The San Antonio Spurs (projected No. 5) are the most intriguing team. With Victor Wembanyama already in place, they need a point guard who can feed him. Topic is the best pure passer in the draft, and his 6’6” frame allows him to see over defenses. He’s a natural fit. However, if Topic is off the board, the Spurs could target Stephon Castle (UConn), a 6’6” combo guard with elite defensive instincts. Castle’s shooting is a question mark, but his NBA-ready body and IQ make him a safe bet. San Antonio’s culture of development could turn him into a star.

At No. 6, the Toronto Raptors are in a unique spot. They have Scottie Barnes as a point-forward but lack shooting. Reed Sheppard (Kentucky) is the best shooter in the draft, knocking down 52% from three. His size (6’3”) is a concern, but his off-ball movement and quick release would thrive in Toronto’s motion offense. If Sheppard is gone, Isaiah Collier (USC) offers downhill scoring, but his turnover issues are alarming. The Raptors love length, so Risacher (France) could also be a target.

The Memphis Grizzlies (projected No. 7) are a playoff team that got unlucky with injuries. They need a wing who can defend and hit threes. Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) is a 6’6” sniper who averaged 21 points on 40% from deep. He’s NBA-ready and could slot into the starting lineup immediately. The Grizzlies also have Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., so they don’t need a project. Knecht is the clear best fit.

The Utah Jazz (projected No. 8) are in full rebuild mode. They need a primary scorer. Collier is a 6’5” bulldog who gets to the rim at will, but his jumper is inconsistent. If he falls, Utah takes him. Otherwise, Zaccharie Risacher is a 6’9” French wing with a smooth stroke and defensive versatility. The Jazz love international talent (Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George), so Risacher feels like a Danny Ainge pick.

Late Lottery Sleepers and Trade Candidates (Picks 9-14)

The back half of the lottery is where savvy teams find gems. The Chicago Bulls (projected No. 9) are in purgatory—not bad enough to tank, not good enough to contend. They need a point guard of the future. Tyler Kolek (Marquette) is a 6’3” floor general with elite passing and a 39% three-point stroke. He’s not explosive, but his basketball IQ is off the charts. The Bulls could also trade this pick for a veteran, but if they keep it, Kolek is the smart choice.

The Atlanta Hawks (projected No. 10) have Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, but they lack depth. They need a versatile forward who can defend and rebound. Kyle Filipowski (Duke) is a 7’0” stretch-five who can play alongside Clint Capela. His three-point shooting (35%) and passing make him a modern big. If Filipowski is gone, Bobi Klintman (Wake Forest) is a 6’10” wing with defensive upside.

The Houston Rockets (projected No. 11) are loaded with young talent (Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson). They need a 3-and-D wing. Ryan Dunn (Virginia) is the best defender in the draft, with a 7’1” wingspan and elite instincts. His offense is raw (27% from three), but Houston can afford to wait. If they want shooting, Jared McCain (Duke) is a sniper who can play off the ball.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (projected No. 12) have a treasure chest of picks. They are already contenders, so they’ll take the best player available. Yves Missi (Baylor) is a 7’0” athletic center who can protect the rim and run the floor. He’s a perfect backup to Chet Holmgren. If Missi is gone, Kelan Ware (Indiana) offers similar upside.

The Indiana Pacers (projected No. 13) need a young big to pair with Tyrese Haliburton. DaRon Holmes II (Dayton) is a 6’10” forward who can shoot (38% from three) and defend. He’s a high-floor pick who fits Indiana’s pace-and-space system. The New Orleans Pelicans (projected No. 14) are deep but need a backup point guard. Mark Sears (Alabama) is a 6’1” scorer who averaged 21 points and 4 assists. He’s a microwave scorer off the bench.

Final Predictions and Draft Night Surprises

Sunday’s lottery will reshape the draft board, but a few things are certain. Cooper Flagg will go No. 1 regardless of which team wins. The real drama starts at No. 2, where Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper will battle for position. Expect at least one trade in the top 5, as teams like the Spurs and Grizzlies look to move up for a specific target. The Raptors could be aggressive, packaging their pick and a young player to grab Reed Sheppard.

My bold prediction: The Washington Wizards win the lottery and select Flagg, igniting a rebuild around him and Jordan Poole. The Detroit Pistons fall to No. 3 and surprise everyone by taking Donovan Clingan over Harper, prioritizing defense over offense. The San Antonio Spurs land Nikola Topic at No. 5, giving Wembanyama the point guard he needs. And in the late lottery, the Chicago Bulls draft Tyler Kolek, sparking a trade of Zach LaVine.

The NBA Draft Lottery is a night of hope, heartbreak, and high-stakes decisions. Whether your team lands the top pick or falls out of the top 5, the right selection can change the trajectory of a franchise. Stay tuned for Sunday’s results, and remember: the draft is a marathon, not a sprint. The best teams don’t just pick the best player—they pick the best fit.

Source: Based on news from ESPN.